Today is the 75th anniversary of the firebombing of Tokyo, which burned about 2.5 million houses and killed ~100,000 people (mostly civilians). Here is a short thread about some of the research on the firebombing and its long-term effects. 1/n
Prior to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the strategic bombing of Japan during WWII targeted 138 cities over several hundred campaigns. 2/n
These campaigns can be classified into two major phases: (1) from 1944, high-altitude bombings of targeted military facilities/industries; (2) from 1945, indiscriminate bombings of urban residential areas. 3/n
The Tokyo bombing, Operation Meetinghouse, was the most extensive in terms of casualties: 100,000 killed and another 100,000 injured. Because of the flammability of Japanese homes, >1 million people were made homeless (Fedman and Karacas, 2012). 4/n dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.…
In the March 10, 1945, air raid alone, 325 B-29 bombers dropped 1,665 tons of incendiary bombs. Four other major low-altitude bombings occurred within a few months. 5/n
Bombers were given aiming points, and instructed not to target the Imperial Palace. One bomber tried to target the Imperial Palace anyway (but missed), and was “chewed out” for his violation of military regulations (Polmar, 2004). 6/n amazon.com/Enola-Gay-Drop…
However, due to high winds, low visibility during the nighttime raids, and features of the geographical terrain, the total damage to Tokyo’s landscape was essentially indiscriminately determined (Japanese described it as “blind bombing”). 7/n
One of the most important sources for first-hand accounts and other historical details of the Tokyo firebombing is the work of Saotome Katsumoto, who experienced the air raids firsthand as a 12-year-old child. 8/n apjjf.org/2015/13/9/Saot…
An article in today’s @nytimes by @motokorich also recounts his story, and his crusade to preserve the history of the bombings, artifacts, and survivor’s accounts in a museum in Tokyo. 9/n nytimes.com/2020/03/09/mag…
A separate article in the @nytimes from yesterday features first-hand recollections from four American veterans, former B-29 bomber crew members who were involved in Operation Meetinghouse. 10/n nytimes.com/2020/03/09/mag…
Beyond the direct human costs, did the bombings have any long-term effects on Tokyo’s development? Davis and Weinstein (2002) find that cities largely recovered to their pre-bombing population size patterns within 15 years—measured at the city-level. 11/n aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
In a new paper, in contrast, Harada, Ito, and I explore the long-term effects of the firebombing damages at the neighborhood-level. 12/n 
We find evidence that decades after the air raids, the most heavily bombed neighborhoods continued to suffer socioeconomically—with higher crime, lower educational attainment, and higher unemployment. 13/n papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
This kind of research speaks to a broader emerging literature on the long-term effects of violence and destruction from war or natural disasters, including important work by @cblatts @TomPepinsky @tedmiguel @TamarMitts @pquerubo @NoamLupu @DrNathanNunn and others. 14/n
Finally, @dfedman and Cary Karacas have created an amazing digital archive on the Tokyo air raids, which includes key documents, photos, maps, and testimonials of survivors. It is a fantastic resource! 15/15 japanairraids.org
I'll add that tomorrow is the 9th anniversary of the March 11, 2011 triple disaster in Japan. On that topic, @DanielPAldrich has done extensive research about social capital and disasters that also relates to this literature. 16/15 amazon.com/dp/022663843X/…
