[Thread] In the last few years of this bull market, the message of #MutualFundsSahiHai resonated a lot. Too many people entered the market with SIPs.
Today, all gains of SIPing in the last three years have evaporated (and turned into losses, so gains closer to 5yrs gone).
I have been bearish on the Indian markets for quite a while now because the fundamentals have deteriorated significantly. But money kept being pumped into the market, keeping valuations high for the top stocks, making them look better than they are.
Like in 2008, it took a black swan to bring everything crashing down. There’s always an event and people blame the event, but the reason it’s crashing is because it was crazy overvalued!
#coronavirusindia contributes, but it’s the fundamentals at the core that are causing it.
The reason I write this thread:
This is about to be the biggest potential wealth transfer in over a decade. Things have been too expensive, but they’re getting saner.
For those with cash on the sidelines, there will be a recovery and the time to build is coming around!
For those who’ve diligently SIP’d for the last 5 years, now is the worst time to stop.
Markets are finally reasonable. Continue, and even increase. Don’t ge bogged down with notional losses.
You only lose when you sell (markets, individual stocks are different).
Also cash in the bank is about to be a whole lot less valuable. That’s a topic for another thread though!
As is to be expected, que cliched Buffett quote:
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There has been only one justification of Electoral Bonds - that otherwise money was moving in cash. It's surprising how little people understand about political money flows!
Political funding is not even 20% in EBs. It's still mostly all black! Then why bring EBs? A 🧵...
Cost of elections and even running a political party's organization is MUCH higher that the amount in EBs. Covered this in my first book.
So the businesses that generate a huge amount of black money are still giving black money to parties! That's still most of political funding.
But there was a problem. Some businesses just don't generate a lot of black money by their very nature.
Like if you get big govt contracts, it'll come from govt's accounts, obviously. There's no way a large business can just withdraw cash. They need to maintain accounts!
Think EVM - VVPAT hacking is a conspiracy theory? Found out one part of it is 100% true.
Earlier VVPAT screens used to be transparent, they changed it to translucent, and now it's completely opaque. You can't see the slips being printed or cut now. Just light on and light off.
Video above is how it used to be - you could clearly see slip being printed and cut. Then they changed it to where light only turned on after slip printing, and turned off before slip cutting. You could still see the process from the right angle though...
In the latest version, nothing. You can't see the printing or the cutting. You only see the slip when light is turned on, and then light turns off... it's totally an opaque window now.
#AdaniExposed Few weeks ago, Deloitte resigned as auditors to Adani. They stated Adani wasn't willing to provide details of suspicious transactions.
The new auditor reported on in the media, BDO Global, isn't even an audit firm! It's a network of independent auditors... 🧵
The actual auditor is a tiny little Bangalore firm called MSKA & Associates, with a 2.3 star rating on Google with 9 reviews. From Deloitte to this? Why?
Today we found out!
In an investigation by @OCCRP, further reported on by the @guardian and @FT, it's been shown how two associates of the Adani group used offshore shell companies to manipulate and boost up Adani's share price.
Manipur won't recover for decades, but it's worse than that. The insurgency across India's Northeast, mostly ended after decades of work by the govt and local leaders in the 2000s.
Now, with its actions, the govt has told many communities it'll not only not protect them...
It can become an active participant in helping spread a genocide.
All the leaders from Modi to N. Biren Singh and all of BJPs office bearers... no one has even mentioned making things normal in Manipur. They instead talk of West Bengal, do whataboutery and suppress information.
This isn't just a breakdown of law and order. This is a state actively telling people it'll not intervene to restore normalcy. It'll not even say that it is intervening.
It's showing BJP will compare any evidence of Manipur descending into chaos with other states...
Talked to BJP folks to understand how they're justifying getting the police to beat up athletes who are protesting against sexual harassment.
The story spun is now surprisingly more complicated.
Initially it was just, politically motivated protest to defame India. As usual.
The athletes now seem to have public sympathy though, as per their assessment. So the defaming needs to be more robust. With a backstory that explains it all away as a conspiracy.
New message is that this all started because Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh is from UP...
All these Haryanvi wrestlers want a Haryanvi to head the association, and the fight is about internal control of the wrestling federation - earlier controlled by Congress' Deepender Hooda.
Hooda was corrupt and mismanaged federation money. Now these corrupt people can't make $.
A very interesting phenomenon I've been trying to explain to people for a while...
The poor and uneducated aren't the ones who fall for and support Hindu-Muslim, Sengol, Vishwaguru because took foreign trips narratives.
It's the middle class and rich!
This bears out in surveys and election results, and even conversations time and again!
The poor 60% of India will vote on welfare, law and order. It's a clear calculation of who is more beneficial to my interests. Then the narratives are secondary.
It's the better off who sway purely on how their ego is manipulated.
Sway it with inferiority complex and how they were suppressed, then show revivalism of their glorious past. Give them an ego boost on how they are better than other humans.