Hi all, I am back and I know a lot of you are scared.
This is a thread on why this will end up ok.
I say this having warned what would happen/get bad at the end of January saying it would go exponential over the period it did (
This is a thread on why this will end up ok.
I say this having warned what would happen/get bad at the end of January saying it would go exponential over the period it did (
https://twitter.com/EMostaque/status/1223023802986221568?s=20)
1. As humans our greatest ability is to come together to form something @waitbutwhy calls the "Human Colossus".
The Colossus can split the atom or reach the stars.
Little versions of it can also do big things, some good, some bad.
The Colossus can split the atom or reach the stars.
Little versions of it can also do big things, some good, some bad.
2. We are tied together by our common stories, from family to sports team to nations.
Even money is just a common story that allows us to store and exchange value at scale, helping connect between and across communities
Even money is just a common story that allows us to store and exchange value at scale, helping connect between and across communities
3. Now our society is not ideal and has come up against some distinct limitations.
Too many people no longer believe in the American, British, French dream etc.
Many want something bigger to believe in
What we need to believe is that we will defeat this together.
Too many people no longer believe in the American, British, French dream etc.
Many want something bigger to believe in
What we need to believe is that we will defeat this together.
4. And we will.
Just as we split the atom and reached the stars, we will get over our shock and fear and despair today and come together to apply ourselves to ending the spectre of coronavirus now and removing a real danger to humanity: that of the Big One, the Mega-Pandemic
Just as we split the atom and reached the stars, we will get over our shock and fear and despair today and come together to apply ourselves to ending the spectre of coronavirus now and removing a real danger to humanity: that of the Big One, the Mega-Pandemic
5. This is like a 7.0 earthquake on the San Andreas fault.
It will cause damage and suffering, but we will rebuild and move on.
In practical terms we see governments now accepting this is impossible to contain (linkedin.com/pulse/why-its-…)
It will cause damage and suffering, but we will rebuild and move on.
In practical terms we see governments now accepting this is impossible to contain (linkedin.com/pulse/why-its-…)
6. We see everyone adapting the precautionary principle (linkedin.com/pulse/underest…).
We, as a society, are going from underestimating a threat so beyond our experience to perhaps overestimating it.
This is deadly and can overwhelm our medical systems, but it is *vulnerable*
We, as a society, are going from underestimating a threat so beyond our experience to perhaps overestimating it.
This is deadly and can overwhelm our medical systems, but it is *vulnerable*
7. It is a disease that kills largely in a specific way.
With ARDS caused by a hyperimmune response the death rate is 5-6x higher than if we can avoid that.
What causes it?
We have a good idea and over the coming months we will understand this back to front.
With ARDS caused by a hyperimmune response the death rate is 5-6x higher than if we can avoid that.
What causes it?
We have a good idea and over the coming months we will understand this back to front.
8. This will be the basis of new, personalized medicine, as it must be to protect the vulnerable, the elderly and those with comorbidities whose bodies can turn on them.
Our medicine today assumes everyone is the same - why should we all have 500mg tylenol?
Our medicine today assumes everyone is the same - why should we all have 500mg tylenol?
9. First principles reasoning is too tough, yet we have all the tools now for the first time to capture our collective intelligence and figure out the exact interventions, social, biological and other that can measurably decrease the risk of pandemics, including this one
10. We will make breakthroughs as our best and brightest *must* work on this from across fields, germinating ideas (DM me if you'd like to!)
This may well become endemic and another seasonal flu, but less and less will die as we reduce systemic inflammation, for the good of all
This may well become endemic and another seasonal flu, but less and less will die as we reduce systemic inflammation, for the good of all
11. We will move to a war economy against a common, tiny, enemy, building giant infrastructure and systemising best practices globally.
There are not enough ventilators, ECMOs etc now.
Doctors tearfully decide who lives and dies.
Soon this will not be the case
There are not enough ventilators, ECMOs etc now.
Doctors tearfully decide who lives and dies.
Soon this will not be the case
12. These are our tanks and guns and will set a template for large scale production for good in the future, with brand new financing mechanisms.
This will blunt the danger and eventually eliminate it entirely, from Tehran to Seattle.
Our bullets will be innovative therapies.
This will blunt the danger and eventually eliminate it entirely, from Tehran to Seattle.
Our bullets will be innovative therapies.
13. As for your portfolios, this is the fastest bear market ever in many markets.
That hurts.
But markets are where they were a year or two ago in many cases.
Record fiscal and other stimulus will be pumped into the market.
We will come out on the other side.
That hurts.
But markets are where they were a year or two ago in many cases.
Record fiscal and other stimulus will be pumped into the market.
We will come out on the other side.
14. At zero/negative rates everywhere and as demand recovers in coming years stocks that make it through are likely to take out all time highs - how can cash go into negative yielding bonds everywhere as those yields start to rise?
And rise they will.
And rise they will.
15. But the bottom line is this.
We are capable of great things but have been distracted by pettiness and greed across our societies and institutions.
there is the saying never let a good crisis go to waste and we won't.
We will come out safer and stronger.
Our kids will be safe
We are capable of great things but have been distracted by pettiness and greed across our societies and institutions.
there is the saying never let a good crisis go to waste and we won't.
We will come out safer and stronger.
Our kids will be safe
16. Infection rates under 18 are tiny (2.3% of cases) and complications minimal.
They are our future.
Be careful but help those who need it in your communities, don't shut yourself off completely in the coming months.
Reach out as you will need it, as will they.
They are our future.
Be careful but help those who need it in your communities, don't shut yourself off completely in the coming months.
Reach out as you will need it, as will they.
17. Many of you will be feeling frustrated at our leaders, institutions and others, but we will get through this and come out stronger and break through much of the dumb stuff we have right now.
Good night and good bless
Good night and good bless
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