One of the takeaways of this key CV study is that temporary contact - like voting - is not nearly as important in the spread as extended contact (families in houses; patrons in bars). imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… 
It also highlights that many who need medical care will need ICU care.
Without radical social distancing, the US is looking at 2.2 Million deaths and shit hitting the fan mid April.
Steps to isolate older americans or the sick, even while closing schools and universities won't do it. The red line at the bottom is our critical care bed capacity (this is UK modeling, but holds true in US).
The only hope to keep numbers below our capacity to provide critical care (red line) is school closures, case isolation and "population-wide social distancing."
The difficulty, however, is that once the population stops social distancing, the numbers will spike until we have herd immunity. This would mean controls have to be reimposed.
18 months is not an unreasonable estimate for disruptions to continue.
Stay safe everyone. Protect your loved ones.
