Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

From Tom Friedman to Donald Trump, a growing chorus of voices is calling on us to surrender to the coronavirus.

This would kill millions of Americans. It’s utterly unacceptable.

Thankfully, there is a much better alternative.

[Thread.]

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

A few days ago, the WSJ suggested that it is time to wind down the “vast social-distancing project of the last 10 days.”

On the weekend, Tom Friedman suggested that we need “less herd mentality and more herd immunity.”

Now, Trump is vowing to reopen the economy by Easter.

Concern about the economy is not frivolous. Recessions exact a real human toll.

To ignore the economic damage done by efforts at containing the pandemic is not to put human lives above profit; it is to ignore one form of suffering in the service of alleviating another.

But…

If you insist on thinking about the world in terms of “hard-nosed” trade-offs, you actually have to be honest about both sides of the equation.

And the people who claim that we should simply go for herd immunity are either silent about its consequences—or outright lying.

Let’s make some implausibly optimistic assumptions.

Without containment efforts, 33% of Americans would contract CoViD-19. One percent of those patients would die.

This would be over one million Americans—more than the Civil War, World War I and World War II.

Combined.

Thankfully, the choice between economic catastrophe and a massive death toll is a false one.

If we keep up social distancing, we can radically curtail the number of new cases and put in place the measures we need to contain the pandemic in a less economically destructive way.

The best way forward is an ambitious track-trace-and-treat regime. It has three core components:

1) Test, test, test. (And then isolate people who are or might be sick).
3) Radically expand hospital capacity.
4) Quickly adopt better treatment options as they become available.

1) Test, test, test.

We need to test as many people as possible to stop those who are sick from spreading the disease.

Then we must trace those with whom they have had contact and make sure they do the same.

We need to use two kinds of tests:

One to determine who is currently sick or infectious.

And another to determine who has already had CoViD-19—and can resume work and social life without danger to themselves or the public.

Of course, we must also put in place an effective system for stopping those who do have CoViD-19 from spreading it to others.

This will involve some *temporary and narrowly tailored* sacrifices to our accustomed liberties.

But it will save countless lives.

2) Expand hospital capacity

Even on the current trajectory, hospitals will soon be overwhelmed with patients.

We must radically expand ICU capacity. We must produce respirators and ventilators. We must train volunteers to do auxiliary work, freeing up trained medical staff.

3) Better Treatment Options

It’s unlikely that a miracle drug will materialize in a matter of days.

But there is good reason to think that treatment options will significantly improve over the coming weeks or months.

Doctors have no experience in fighting CoViD-19. They'll get better at managing the disease—and recognizing warning signs in younger patients.

Trials are now underway for new drugs. Hopefully, some of them will make a real difference.

Over time, the odds of survival will rise.

Now here’s the best thing about all these measures: their impact is mutually reinforcing.

If we halve the number of people who contract the virus, double hospital capacity, and rescue every second patient who currently dies, the overall death toll falls by roughly seven eights.

In the midst of World War II, Winston Churchill said:

“Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the [U.K.] last for a thousand years, men will still say, 'This was their finest hour.'"

Amidst America’s most dramatic crises since WWII, the President is now saying:

“Let us therefore brace ourselves to fail in our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the American Republic last for a thousand years, men will still say, ‘This was their lowest hour.’”

But here's the thing:

If we do the right thing now this could, despite the odds, still be America’s finest hours.

Let’s stay the course. Let’s suppress the pandemic. Then let’s go back to some semblance of normality by putting in place a rigorous test-trace-and-treat regime.

The more resolutely we act right now, the faster we will hav our normal lives back and, yes, the better the chance of saving the economy.

Please share this thread. And please share my article @TheAtlantic.

[End.]

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…