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Philippe Burger Profile picture
@PhilippeBurger
Mar 28, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Not unexpected, & for all the reasons we have all been talking about for quite some time. 1/ businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/202… via @BusinessLiveSA
Most of the downgrade has probably already been priced into bond, interest and exchange rates, but with the Corona-induced risk-fleeing reallocation of portfolios underway internationally, these rates might deteriorate some more. 2/
Also, at a time when the government will need to borrow substantially to finance its Corona fight back, it might find significantly less interest in the bonds it sells to finance the fight back. 3/
#CoronavirusSouthAfrica #Moodys #downgrade

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More from @PhilippeBurger

Philippe Burger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2020
Why did the #unemploymentrate fall, while 2.2mil lost their #jobs in Q2? And why did the number of unemployed people fall? @StatsSA /1
The working age population comprises the employed, the unemployed and the economically non-active (e.g. students, people preferring not to work - they don't have a job, but are also not unemployed). 2/
According to the official definition of unemployed, to be classified as unemployed you must be actively searching for work. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Philippe Burger Profile picture
Sep 8, 2020
Headline: Economy contracted 51% in Q2. Before we go off the rails, the economy in Q2 is not half its size in Q1. 51% is an annualised rate, i.e we take Q2 shrinkage and ask, if the whole year looks like this, with how much will the economy shrink? @StatsSA @tito_mboweni
Output in Q2 was 16.4% smaller than in Q1. That is bad as it is, but the whole year will not look like Q2 - there will presumably be a rebound as we speak, in Q3 and Q4. Hopeful for the full year shrinkage will come in under 10%.
On a year-on-year basis, GDP in 2020Q2 is 17.2% smaller than in 2019Q2.
Read 5 tweets

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