The White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing tonight included a stark forecast of the pandemic ahead. In terms of what is at stake for the country, it was the most candid, clearly communicated presentation since the start of these briefings. 1/x
The briefing explained why strict social distancing is critical for all parts of the country. With social distancing around the country, models used by WH forecast between 100,000-240,000 deaths. Without it, the WH models forecast between 1.5M-2.2M deaths in the US. 2/x
That is the kind of information that Americans need to hear in terms of why all of this large scale social disruption is needed around the country. The Task Force speakers made clear the next 2-3 weeks will bring a great deal of disease in many place in the country. 3/x
The President explained that there was no chance of having normal life in America while virus is spreading and causing this much disease. He explained this is nothing like flu, that he knew someone personally who was well and then shortly thereafter in a coma. 4/x
This kind of direct communication from the President is very much needed for communicating to some parts of the country that may not yet be convinced that social distancing is necessary. 5/x
Dr. Birx explained that what's happened in NYC and northern NJ could happen in other US cities soon unless we continue w/ social distancing. She and Dr. Fauci repeatedly said that everyone needs to be committed to social distancing around the country. 6/x
Encouraging to see chart showing Washington state seems to have flattened its curve in recent days. Since it started social distancing about 2 wks earlier than other places, suggests that these measures may start working elsewhere in the country in next week or two. 7/x
[Separately – not discussed in press conference – article in NYT: reductions in fevers around country suggests social distancing is diminishing national incidence of disease nytimes.com/2020/03/30/hea… encouraging to see more signs social distancing perhaps making a difference. 8/x]
It'd be quite valuable for WH, @CDCgov to openly share state level models being used to forecast spread of disease in each state. Important for planners around the country to be able to see all of this info, to track trends, to see how all states’ cases are evolving. 9/x
It was important to see a more neutral message on chloroquine – the main message tonight was that it needs to be studied in trials and we’ll see what happens. This is consistent w/ what is known about this drug. Too soon to know if it will help vs cause harm. 10/x
It was a new development to hear message at briefing that public should use masks if they want to. “Its not a bad idea for the time being”. Important message delivered that medical masks should go to hospitals – cant have the public competing with the hospitals.11/x
My hope is that @CDCgov comes out w specific recommendation for public to wear masks soon. Recommending non-medical mask use for the public for anyone going into public indoor spaces where they will interact with other people. 12/x
Would be quite valuable soon for the public to hear from @CDCgov on what materials/designs are best for making home made masks, etc. 13/x
From this morning, Director of @cdcgov reports that up to 25% of people with COVID are symptom free, greatly complicating control. This is making CDC consider public mask use recommendation to diminish risk of those asymptomatic/presymptomatic people spreading disease. 14/x
