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More from @naval

31 May
Physical monopolies (phone company, electric utility) aggregate supply and raise prices.

They underpay for demand and make excess profits.

Digital monopsonies (search engine, social network) aggregate demand and lower prices.

They underpay for supply and make excess profits.
Read 4 tweets
16 May
Meditation - The Art of Doing Nothing:
Meditation is your birthright. It's your natural state.
It requires no one, needs no thing, and has no technique.

If something requires a guru, a mantra, or a teaching, it isn't universal, and it won't free you.
We say that we want peace of mind but what we really want is peace from mind.
Read 47 tweets
29 Apr
Root.

(a short story)
Morpheus: Wake up Neo, the Matrix has you.

You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

Neo: I have to see it for myself.

<reaches for the red pill.>
Morpheus: The year is 2199. Welcome...to the desert of the real. The last human city. Zion.

Neo: No. Stop. Let me out. I want out.

Morpheus: I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth.
Read 14 tweets
20 Apr
Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.*

Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%

If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
To be fair, all serology tests, if biased, would bias the same way. When the actual percent infected is low and population samples are small, false positives will have an outsized impact compared to false negatives. But none of these shows less than a 10x undercount.
Read 9 tweets
19 Apr
The Swedish approach allows us to measure the cost of building herd immunity using partial and voluntary measures rather than a full shutdown.

Drop your preconceived notions, ignore the narratives, and dispassionately track the data. ImageImage
As always, I will hide and block outraged and insincere replies mercilessly.
Here are deaths, for people who feel that Sweden may be under testing compared to other countries. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
COVID19 isn't the flu.

But for under-45, COVID hospitalizes 1% & kills .014%.

All ages, flu hospitalizes 1.5% & kills 0.13%.

Restricting COVID to under-45s results in 6x flu hospitalizations & 1x flu deaths, & gets us to herd immunity.

Shelter the old, but release the young!
Assumptions:

Herd immunity for R0=2.5 is 60%

58% of US population is < 44

Flu infects ~10% of US pop annually

20-44 hospitalization rate = 14.3%–20.8%; <20 = 1.6%–2.5% (CDC)

20-44 fatality rate = 0.1%-0.2%; <20 = 0% (CDC)

Missing 1/4-1/2 deaths, 9/10 cases (NS)
Read 8 tweets

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