Fixing inefficiencies in the lockdown by understanding risk is lumpy. Some people, some activities contain most of the risk.
johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/03/beyond…
johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/03/beyond…
"Two weeks of California lockdown have gone by and I do not see signs of plans being made for virus-safe reopening. The fight seems to be between lockdown and reopen -- with little thought to the only possible answer: reopen smart."
Some people can't accept this because activists tend to absolutes, dealing in mutually exclusives. But in reality every locked down society has exceptions and every non-locked down society has prohibitions. The key is the details.
Because few politicians are comfortable with math some will cling to models as one would to a magic talisman, possibly without understanding. Understandably no one wants to make a mistake.
So the search is on for a Sign, some breakthrough policy or success story that leaders can nerve themselves to follow. Unfortunately this requires the first innovator to take a risk.
