Want a more realistic range for COVID-19 deaths in the US given all the uncertainties involved?
Experts in a survey we're publishing say it's somewhere between 70,000 and 1.7 million. The mean guess is 260K, but the range is wide, obviously. fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-…
Experts in a survey we're publishing say it's somewhere between 70,000 and 1.7 million. The mean guess is 260K, but the range is wide, obviously. fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-…
Two differences to be mindful of:
1) Some models *assume* that social distancing will remain in place until an appropriate time. The experts the survey do not necessarily assume that, however; they are trying to account for real-world uncertainties.
1) Some models *assume* that social distancing will remain in place until an appropriate time. The experts the survey do not necessarily assume that, however; they are trying to account for real-world uncertainties.
2) Some models are only seeking to forecast the current wave of infections. Conversely, the experts in this survey are trying to forecast through the end of the year, which could include a second wave.
The "good news", I suppose—I am making gigantic air-quote motions as I type this—is that the outlook hasn't changed that much over the past few weeks. These same experts were predicting 200K US deaths two weeks ago and 260K now so not actually that different given the wide range.
