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I hate this line of thinking (AnYtHiNg CaN HaPpEn NoW BeCaUsE TrUmP! 2016! 2020!)
Here's how Andrew Cuomo could be nominated. Joe Biden drops out. That *could* happen. He could get sick. There could be some huge scandal. If Democrats need a last-minute replacement for Biden, then Cuomo might be the choice you'd bet on. Short of that though, very very unlikely.
The delegates are technically free agents (even on the first ballot, *pledged* delegates aren't legally *bound*) but the delegates they are *chosen by the candidates* so you can expect loyalty. The Biden delegates are gonna want Biden unless Biden doesn't want the nomination.
Meanwhile, actual Democratic voters are drifting *more* toward Biden as the coronavirus crisis unfolds. The behavior of real people is completely divorced from the narrative on here, a lesson folks probably already ought to have learned re: Biden.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
After surprisingly low death tolls the past two days—which I was worried were partly caused by day-of-week effects (reporting can be slower coming out of weekends)— today was a bad one: 1,941 new deaths reported in the US, the highest yet by some margin, surpassing 1,352 on Sat.
The number of new cases looks pretty decent, though: 31,263. That's higher than Monday (29,023) or Sunday (26,553) but lower than Friday (33,767) and Thursday (32,889). 137K new tests reported, which is about average for recent days.
All of this is in line with what you might expect. Newly-reported cases lag infection by something like 2-3 weeks. Go back 2-3 weeks, and that's when a lot of stay-at-home orders went into effect. You are really starting to see their impact. The new-cases curve is now quite flat.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing re: sports getting re-started.

People seem to be interpreting proposals by the various leagues in light of the current situation, i.e. where there are rather strict lockdowns almost everywhere. In the current situation, these proposals are dumb and/or far-fetched IMO.
But we're not going to be facing the current situation forever. Eventually, these restrictions are going to be lifted. When? I dunno. But almost certainly it will come in stages. So there will be an interim period, perhaps lasting months, where things are halfway back to normal.
In the halfway-to-normal stage, these proposals are potentially more viable and prudent. That's not to say you can't find fault with them. But a lot of people, institutions, governments and businesses probably ought to be thinking about what the halfway stage looks like.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In general, people badly overestimate trends and underestimate mean-reversion.

So you should expect that people *really* over-extrapolate from "things that have changed for a few weeks because of mass social distancing" to "OMG A BRAND NEW PARADIGM!!".
I'm especially perplexed by the "NEW PARADIGM!!" stuff when it comes from people who think markets (in a broad sense) are reasonably efficient because it's not at all obvious why the equilibrium 12-18+ months (post-vaccine) from today should greatly differ from the one today.
"Pandemic risk was underpriced in Europe and N. America (though not in Asia) and will now be approximately properly priced" is a reasonable hypothesis, but the societal changes that flow from that are probably an order of magnitude less sweeping than these polemics would assume.
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