Thread by @kurteichenwald

I can't fully express the horror I feel - and everyone else should - about @larry_kudlow and apparently other conservatives saying "no one could have known about COVID-19 exponential growth."

First, it points out reporters arent consulting experts about basic virology. How.../1

...can reporters hope to ask questions on the greatest public health threat in a century without speaking to experts? The ide that @larry_kudlow could make this statement without being slammed to the wall with questions of disbelief is astonishing to me.

Second, it explains.../2

...so much about the incompetence of the Trump Admin in dealing with this outbreak. The basic reproduction number of the virus (which shows whether it will have a geometric growth or not) is at the foundation of EVERY disease management strategy in public health crises..../3

...the combination of the basic reproduction number (r0) and incubation time is critical to know in an epidemic. We have known them since January, but now all these conservatives are proclaiming they either didn't know either, or learned them very recently..../4

...if you have both a high r0 and a long incubation time, it is the worst possible combination if the issue is ignored. People will walk around infected with no symptoms for weeks, passing it on to person after person, who will infect in an exponential growth. This is why.../5

...the idiocy of red state governors saying "we don't need to do anything, we don't have a lot of cases" is so incredibly stupid. You *do* have cases, they just haven't had symptoms yet because of a long incubation period, and once you know this.../6

...since the virus is highly infectious (as represented by r0) it is too late. Sick people have been infecting people who have 2 weeks until symptoms and infect people and on and on. The period of incubation keeps stretching out as infection rises exponentially, unseen.../7

...i knew trump and his gang of idiots were too incompetent to manage this, but i assumed they were just misunderstanding the basic issues and making bad disease control decisions. *But they don't even know the most elemental basics of epidemics and pandemics.* If you dont.../8

...have even that basic understanding, you cant have a management strategy.

We are *literally* on our own. Were governed by morons who cant be bothered to consult experts. Assume everyone you know is infected. Stay home, wash hands. If you dont protect yourself, no one will

fin