IHME has updated their US states COVID-19 model again.
Their new best estimate for US total deaths during the first wave has fallen to 60,000 (from 83,000 two days earlier).
healthdata.org/covid
Their new best estimate for US total deaths during the first wave has fallen to 60,000 (from 83,000 two days earlier).
healthdata.org/covid
As with the last release, they expect all US states will see their initial peak at some time during April, though with some earlier than others.
A few of these have been reshuffled, with a slight overall shift towards earlier peaks.
A few of these have been reshuffled, with a slight overall shift towards earlier peaks.
Because the IHME model is trained on a lagging indicator, i.e. per state deaths, I haven't been surprised to see their total projected deaths be revised downward (93,000 -> 82,000 -> 60,000), and wouldn't be surprised if it goes somewhat lower still.
Just as important though, their model only really tells us about what might happen during the initial wave.
There is likely to be slower pace of post-peak infections, and if infection control measures are loosened without due care, additional waves of infection are possible.
There is likely to be slower pace of post-peak infections, and if infection control measures are loosened without due care, additional waves of infection are possible.
