World Bank published scary report today on Covid-19 impact on SS African economies. (En français and english at link below). Here's a thread on the DRC bits. 1/10 openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3…
"The IMF estimates an additional 2020 fiscal gap of $400 million related to COVID-19."
IMF was already expecting a $300m fiscal deficit for DRC, so that's scary for a gov't only expecting $5.45 billion in total revenue per its revised budget plan. 2/10
IMF was already expecting a $300m fiscal deficit for DRC, so that's scary for a gov't only expecting $5.45 billion in total revenue per its revised budget plan. 2/10
"[A]n increase in public spending in response to the pandemic may
compromise the government’s already weak capacity to finance social spending programs."
Bad news for gratuité unless there's more donor support. 3/10
compromise the government’s already weak capacity to finance social spending programs."
Bad news for gratuité unless there's more donor support. 3/10
Report has great graphs. This one illustrates how atrocious health spending already is in DRC compared to rest of SS Africa 4/10 
And how bad sanitation is: 3rd-lowest number of people w/ access to handwashing in all of SS Africa. 5/10
Congo's economy is particularly vulnerable b/c of dependence on mineral & oil exports for foreign exchange and its overwhelming reliance on China for exports & imports.
Central Bank already slashed 2020 growth projection to 1.1% as a result. 6/10
Central Bank already slashed 2020 growth projection to 1.1% as a result. 6/10
But some good news: Only 5.9% of Congo's population is over 55 (wow), & it seems younger people are more resilient to Covid-19. 7/10
And, b/c DRC has one of lowest external debt-to-GDP ratios in Africa after getting debt relief in 2010 (and, uh, because no one will lend money to DRC), gov't will avoid terrible scenario facing countries with lots of debt and commercial bonds in foreign currencies. 8/10
World Bank is already sending $47m to DRC for Covid-19 response. If gov't doesn't steal money there will probably be more coming from both Bank & IMF (in grants & loans, shock facilities, project funding, debt payment delays, etc.) 9/10
But gov't will struggle even if IMF & WBG funds come & central bank prints more cash. FX reserves are at near-critical levels.
VAT probably won't be reimbursed, & internal debts owed to local contractors will balloon. Will get worse if virus endures. Bon courage à tous ! 10/10
VAT probably won't be reimbursed, & internal debts owed to local contractors will balloon. Will get worse if virus endures. Bon courage à tous ! 10/10
