Thread by @AbimbolaOnaolu

Nigerians have questions about why it appears the #COVIDー19 virus is not as "serious" like reports from Italy, Spain et al. I have read a number of Scientific research papers exploring this. Yesterday I saw a tweet by @urchilla01 and I immediately wanted a Debate.
#MLS4COVID19

Apologies to @davidapaflo - I hope I got this right? My sin? Poaching your graphic for common good.

We want to explore why case fatalities for #COVIDー19 is "low" in Nigeria.

There are a number of hypotheses and @Idris_ArRazi has a paper awaiting review. #MLS4COVID19

Also, @urchilla01 hypothesised that Corona virus was probably in Nigeria by December based on laboratory data - an increase in requests for throat swabs? & observation of an increase in respiratory issues by patients reporting in the hospital. This raises questions.
#MLS4COVID19

Has the number of requests for throat swabs and the number of patients presenting with respiratory issues in December 2019 been compared with previous December data for at least 5 - 10 years?

Any significant differences?

#MLS4COVID19

Also, Nigeria's weather type in December is usually harmattan. Do harmattan periods lead to an increase in respiratory issues?

Without appropriate tests, can we comfortably say a cough = #COVIDー19?

What does the research say about weather and severity of cases?

#MLS4COVID19

Are there other factors that may explain seemingly low virulence observed in the almost 300 confirmed cases as reported by @NCDCgov

Or is the low virulence & low numbers a false appearance caused by low reporting and low testing?
How do we get the answer to this?
#MLS4COVID19

Is there an increase in unexplained deaths?

Who can compare the death rates dating back years to see if there is a surge in 2020 that could be due to unreported #COVIDー19 cases?

#MLS4COVID19

I will share the draft paper by @Idris_ArRazi at the end of this thread. But will share some excerpts here.

Link to full paper will be shared at the end of the thread.
#MLS4COVID19

Below are the summary facts from the paper:

1. There appears to be disproportionate Case Fatalities Rate (CFR) across the world.

Deaths due to COVID-19 has not been the same e.g. Italy has higher death rates which some suggest is due to the higher ratio of the elderly in Italy compared with young.
#MLS4COVID19

But the young also die. Some suggest this is due to previous history of immune - deficiency, altered respiratory function ailments like Asthma, cardiovascular issues etc

So what exactly determines severity of a #COVIDー19 infection? Remember , the Asymptomatic...

#MLS4COVID19

Science will always try to find the answers to many puzzling questions.
Some of the answers to the questions I have asked are already known.
So, I hope Medical Scientists will come on this thread to give clearer answers.

#MLS4COVID19

@Idris_ArRazi draft paper says the genetic makeup and stability of the Sars-CoV2 virus are key determinants that contribute to it's virulence and pathogenicity .

Does this mean viruses change in makeup and do not remain in one stable form. Are there variants?

#MLS4COVID19

Another excerpt - "the S-glycoprotein is key because of it's role in host cells attachment (...) and pathogenicity of #COVIDー19

Implying?
The Sars-CoV2 virus molecular structure has protein components, one of which is S- glycoprotein that help it attach to cells
#MLS4COVID19

The S-Protein appears to change in the structure of virus seen from different patients and this mutation is suggested as a reason why the virulence is different in some populations.
Comparisons of the Nigerian viral genome structure may then give us more answers?

#MLS4COVID19

For the draft paper and more scientific explanations, please read at bit.ly/mls4covid19

Now, over to the experts, please review. The information above, do you agree or disagree with it?

What other reasons do you suggest is responsible for low cases in Africa

#MLS4COVID19