Thread by @forrestmaready

Models, models, everywhere. And not a drop to drink.

Why is no one talking about the obvious problem with Coronavirus COVID-19 models?

(Thread).

I’ve been hearing nothing but models the last few days as everyone—many whom I thought were freedom, liberty-loving, Americans—argue over the adjustments, shortcomings, and errors of Coronavirus models.

These models were used to predict the amount of death, destruction, and suffering the Coronavirus was likely to cause and, as a result of their ominous forecasts, nearly the entire world has been shut down, obliterating several American Constitutional amendments in the process.

“We must find a better way to get these models more accurate,” some are saying.

“We must improve our data sources!” others proclaim. “Garbage in, garbage out, right?”

Here’s the problem. The models will always be wrong. They will ALWAYS be VERY wrong. This is true for global weather modeling, and it will ALWAYS be true for pandemic modeling.

There are too many data points, too many variables for any government or public health agency—no matter how smart they think they are—to account for. The result is that central authority, despite their hand-on-heart best efforts, will be always be wrong.

This is the main reason socialism, communism, and any other non-free-market economic models have always failed spectacularly. Well-intentioned, intelligent people have tried to create a utopian society where everyone always has what they need, and no one ever goes lacking.

To do this, they must control the prices of things, which means they must also control the supply of things—which means that inevitably, they control the DEMAND of things as well.

If you want more bread, because your children happen to like bread, well then, too bad—it doesn’t fit our model. If you would prefer less green beans and more gas for your car? Also, too bad. Our model indicates that you only need 12 gallons of gas per week.

On and on these disparities play out in a controlled system, shaking more and more violently until it eventually collapses, killing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, in the process.

Many smart people understand this and work hard to educate mindless youths as to why socialism or communism or any other collectivist scheme will not work. For some reason, these same people seem completely shocked our pandemic models failed us & bad things happen as a result.

Why are they missing the OBVIOUS problem? We can no more accurately predict the mortality or morbidity numbers of a pandemic than we can what the temperature or price of gold will be 10 days from now.

With meteorological or economic forecasting, we know these limitations and most rational people would never insist on setting public policy based on our predictions of these things.

But for some reason, people think that pandemic modeling is a valid reason to dictate every single aspect of your life—what stores you can go to; what aisles you’re allowed to shop from while you’re in those stores; what outdoor activities you’re allowed to participate in...

...how you’re allowed to greet your own family members; if and when you’re allowed to worship.

What has happened over the last few weeks in our country and beyond is absolute madness of the highest order, and I’m so disappointed in the way many defenders of freedom have completely missed the most egregious attack on our personal liberty this country has EVER seen.

We would never allow this kind of control because the government was convinced a stock market crash was about to happen. We would never allow this kind of control because the government was convinced a massive sun-flare was about to disrupt all communication networks.

Why have we allowed all of these liberties to be taken away because of pandemic modeling, something we know will ALWAYS be wrong?

If you believe in personal liberty & other protections enshrined in the Constitution, but are perfectly willing to let all of those rights fly out the window b/c accountants in white lab coats are screaming the sky is falling—for the 100th time, you do not deserve this country.

The reality is that it doesn’t even matter if the models were right. We cannot govern this country based on future predictions of thousands of variables we cannot control—no matter what calamity we are told to fear.

Every individual, every family, must make their own decisions about how to live their life as best they can.

This is true economically. This is true environmentally. And this is most definitely true medically. They are no different. Stupid economic decisions you make can affect me and my family, but it is futile to try and govern your economic decisions for my family’s wellbeing.

Stupid decisions you make environmentally can affect my family, but there are far too many variables for government to effectively control your behavior for my wellbeing.

We will always have more data and information than we know what to do with. This is more true now than any other time in human history. It gives us the false sense that, if given enough power, we can fix things and make people’s lives better.

This is a lie, and many people fall for it every time. We want to change things for the better, obviously, but the government is not the place to do it. Do what you can to make YOUR life better. Do what you can to make OTHER lives around you better.

But when natural human charity is handed over to the government, it turns into authoritarianism. Fascism. The Police state. The loss of personal liberty. And NOTHING is worth losing that.