2 appalling aspects of discourse:
1. Deaths statistic is being treated as factual even when we know it's a WILD undercount. This is deeply irresponsible. EVERY sentence referencing the stats MUST include the fact it is SERIOUSLY too low.
2. MANY "models" project only 1 wave.
1. Deaths statistic is being treated as factual even when we know it's a WILD undercount. This is deeply irresponsible. EVERY sentence referencing the stats MUST include the fact it is SERIOUSLY too low.
2. MANY "models" project only 1 wave.
SOME LINKS (but there are many out there):
nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyr…
nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/…
I *strongly* suspect red state/rural counts are WAY off, given inadequacy of testing & political incentives.
nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyr…
nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/…
I *strongly* suspect red state/rural counts are WAY off, given inadequacy of testing & political incentives.
Why does this matter? By underplaying the human cost of our irresponsibly delayed social distancing, "stats based" people are facilitating a premature return to normalcy.
Statistics *seem objective,* and so limitations must be highlighted.
Statistics *seem objective,* and so limitations must be highlighted.
(btw, we were last in office physically 3/10 at @revolvingdoorDC/@ceprdc)
One sports context: Utilizing "deaths due to COVID-19" without adjusting for the undercount is like reporting "home runs hit by the 1990s Colorado Rockies" without noting Coors Field's unique impact on baseball.
It's tendentiously correct and wildly wrong at the same time!
It's tendentiously correct and wildly wrong at the same time!
As I keep yelling about... there is major variability in how many COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted and the right wing UK government is behaving as expected. politico.com/newsletters/po…
cc: @mattyglesias @NateSilver538
cc: @mattyglesias @NateSilver538
Our nursing home count is a mess: nbcnews.com/news/us-news/m…
Good that New York City is belatedly *beginning* the incomplete process of updating their statistics; crazy that just recently death certificates would mention "COVID" & yet the deaths had been excluded from the stats "data analysts" trumpet.
politico.com/states/new-yor…
politico.com/states/new-yor…
I bet Florida under criminally negligent Governor @GovRonDeSantis is VASTLY worse in undercounts. If you see a stat analyst taking Florida stats literally or seriously... adjust your priors on their analysis.
NYC -->>
Florida is going to be such a catastrophe and I am skeptical the public stats will reflect that for a while.... miamiherald.com/news/health-ca…
Here's @propublica on the unattributed death issue. By failing to account for deaths accurately we're encouraging unwise public policy and distorting public opinion.
Too many striking visual representations with far too little humility about data quality. propublica.org/article/theres…
Too many striking visual representations with far too little humility about data quality. propublica.org/article/theres…
Federalism in America, man. propublica.org/article/theres…
Yeah, between penal incarceration and the incarceration of migrants... I bet thousands of human beings are dying without being counted.
WHEN WILL THESE HANDLES AND WEBSITES quit misleading people?
Do I think that nursing home TRAGEDIES like this are limited to NYC?
Do we think the situation in Florida is going okay???? miamiherald.com/news/state/flo…
Do we think the situation in Florida is going okay???? miamiherald.com/news/state/flo…
Read this thread and recognize that there is a political movement which wants FEWER RULES ON HOW "PRIVATE SECTOR" spend taxpayer money in their nursing homes/assisted living facilities: nytimes.com/2020/04/16/nyr…
There are no "2 sides" to the argument for Big Government Regulation.
There are no "2 sides" to the argument for Big Government Regulation.
Here I was on April 1st telling everyone that the leaders of the "narrative" were pretending statistics that were being juked were being objective.
I bet a ton of the pushback on social distancing is due to the stat juking understating COVID-19's impact:
I bet a ton of the pushback on social distancing is due to the stat juking understating COVID-19's impact:
I mean, how can you justify limiting "statistics" purported to be complete on COVID-19 deaths to positive tests when American testing capacity is tragically inadequate?
My 3+ weeks of obsession on this point is because we're going to see premature re-openings (and inadequate provision of free food, shelter, and health care to the vulnerable) due to the sense the pandemic is overrated... because of juked "statistics."
That Boris Johnson's United Kingdom is juking the stats is... unsurprising, although there may be hopes for improvement there. telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/1…
GREAT TO HAVE The Economist on the case:
