We have tons of empirical evidence that sentences can be reduced w/out any hit to public safety. The US Sentencing Commission reduced federal crack sentences (about two years on average), and those folks who got retroactive reductions didn't offend at higher rates. /1
We've also seen states around the country reduce sentences for a range of crimes, from theft to drug crime to recidivist enhancements for all kinds of crimes, including violence. Those reductions did not lead to increases in crime. /2
And we've seen states reduce their jail populations pre-trial without any increases in crime. New Jersey, for example, long before COVID-19, lowered its jail population from its peak of 31,000 to 19,000, and crime didn't go up. /3
So in the middle of a global pandemic that threatens the lives of everyone inside prisons & jails (those incarcerated and those who work there), we absolutely should be lowering populations to allow for better distancing and to get vulnerable people out. /4
This isn't a tradeoff between public safety from crime and public safety from a deadly virus. We can maximize safety in both respects by lowering populations. People can be quarantined upon release for 14 days to make sure they're not carriers. We just need leadership. /end
