Today's figures show 78,991 confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK. Let's assume only 1 in 20 cases of people with symptoms are being picked up by tests. Real number of cases = 1.58m cases. However .... 1/n
Let's assume half of all cases are completely asymptomatic, so real case total so far isn't 1.58 but 3.16m. Which seems a lot, yes? Except there are 66.65m people in the UK meaning 63.5m still unaffected in any way by this virus. 2/n
So this *current* lockdown has been (really) effective in meaning the NHS hasn't been overwhelmed and *might* have only 10-20k deaths in *this* phase of the pandemic, about 95% of the population vulnerable (again) when lockdown eases. 3/n
So while it's obvious the government don't want to say, explicitly, this lockdown or similar forms of it will be in place for 6-12 months (not weeks), or even longer, unless there's a vaccine / cure ... it's going to be a long, long haul. 4/n
