Thread by @CarpeNoctom

Seeing lots of talk about what normalcy will look like now that most of us are several weeks into quarantine

Here's a 1921 cartoon on the "return to normalcy"

Some events before and after:
1900 - gold standard begins
1913 - FED created
1914 - 1918 - WWI
1917 - tax increase
1918 - influenza pandemic
1919 - prohibition begins
"Roaring Twenties"
1920 - woman's suffrage
1921 - tax cuts
1924 - tax cuts
1929 - stock market crash

1929 - 1939 - Great Depression
1933 - FDR 1st term - New Deal
1933 - Hitler rises to power
1933 - prohibition ends
1934 - gold standard ends/tax inc
1935 - Social Security Act
1937 - FDR 2nd term
1938 - Federal Minimum Wage enacted
1939 - 1945 - WWII
1941 - FDR 3rd term

So ya, normal could be a ways away yet, especially because of the inequality pickle we've put ourselves in

I wonder what has been going on, hmmm

It's almost as if coronavirus pandemic isn't the cause of the pending recession/depression, but just a catalyst (which will amplify inequality)

I think most people Agree with that argument at this point

He's what's happening on Main Street, and it's just getting started

https://twitter.com/ziibiing/status/1248606174519402496

The viral @chamath interview this week put a spotlight on what needs to be done on Wall St

Let the poorly managed companies fail, don't bail them out

The viral @jimcramer pic also highlighted the Wall St and Main St divide

Socialize the Losses, Privatize the Gains

Low-wage jobs have been the hardest hit

What policies come next will be the difference a "beautiful deleveraging", as @RayDalio puts it, and catastrophe

It's early, but thus far, policies of the Trump administration and action by the FED hasn't inspired much confidence that this recession won't evolve into a full-blown depression

Interestingly though, many policies deemed impossible or too expensive just months ago, are being deployed/enacted by gov/corps

- inc min wage
- UBI
- Paid sick leave
- Healthcare4all
- student loan forgiveness
- releasing non-violent criminals
- paper ballots
- housing homeless

O btw, this debt thing might be an issue too

https://twitter.com/LibertyBlitz/status/1099407738440806410?s=20

And let's take a look at student loan debt...

Mortgage foreclosure rates had been falling dramatically since '08, but will probably rise again through 2020+

Instead of subprime mortgages popping, this go round we have sub prime auto loans ready to burst

So from my POV what will an economic normal look like?

- infrastructure program ala WPA
- inc tax on the 1%
- let Wall St/big biz fail
- end Corp Welfare
- close inequality gap

Based on history, WWIII is not an impossibility, should economic policies fail globally

Factors that ended The Great Depression appear to still be hotly debated today:

Gov Expansion via New Deal?
WWII?
Monetary Expansion?
Gov Contraction via tax cuts?

Here is some reading on the subject
nber.org/papers/w3829.p…

independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_12…

fee.org/articles/what-…

washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-kle…
nytimes.com/2011/08/14/bus…
hillsdale.edu/educational-ou…

wsj.com/articles/SB100…