My Authors
Read all threads
Deepak Parekh of .@HomeLoansByHDFC says:
There is HOPE
This time will pass
Facing disruptions & dislocations like never before
This situation will unwind
No clarity on the timeline
Never before has world economy shrunk by 12% in one quarter
Most brutal collapse of equity this yr
There is slump in oil prices
80-85% of India’s requirement of oil is imported
Skirmish fight between OPEX, oil producing countries & Russia
Each one wants other to reduce production price by $10/barrel
Oil takes 10% of our wholesale price index & 3% of consumer price index
Don’t think that we have reached the bottom of share prices yet
Emerging mkts have fallen more than developed mkt
Most countries've given stimulus measures; but they are all inadequate
Persistent strength of the US dollar has pushed major emerging economies to depreciate sharply
Unbelievable how China has managed to stay whether in equity mkt or currency mkt
$90bn of investment has gone out of emerging economies in Mar’20
We should not be too gloomy about macro in India
Forex reserve is strong in India
India is the largest recipient of money from NRIs
Challenges in India:
Indian economy was already on slowdown before COVID-19
Human, economic & financial crisis is being faced now
Poor are the most vulnerable
Must recognize that govt has ltd resources
Need to ensure safety of people
Valuation model is going to change drastically
Real estate is a very very important asset class
Demand & supply have evaporated due to COVID-19
There has been quite a lot of fraud in real estate sector (in India)
Timely lockdown by govt: hope it flattens the curve & we come out strongly
Real estate prices can come down by 20%
Commercial real estate space has not evaporated completely
Dont see entire workforce to work from home on a permanent basis
Govt & regulators are sensitised towards real estate sector
Govt has limited resources w.r.t. fiscal
Reco for state govt:
Need to incentivise migrants to return to the states & construction place
Need to bear their insurance & travel cost
Waiver of stamp duty & registration charges of housing in Sept'20 for a limited period of time
Review ready reckoner rates more frequently
IQR, TDR cost, ULC charges, etc charges have to be staggered as no one can pay it upfront
When state govt sells land; they must take money in part wise & not upfront

Reco for RBI:
Monetary transmission isn't happening in current environment
Banks have & will continue to remain risk averse; need to change their attitude
RBI has been given suggestions to buy corporate bonds
RBI needs to act quickly; cannot have further financial accidents
One time restructuring needs to be done; its a better solution for renegotiate
For some period of time: shift to 180 days NPA rather than 90 days NPA recognition

For Builders:
Compromise, compromise, compromise
Builders need to get rid of inventory & keep long term relationships
Need to leverage & deeper long time relationship with bankers
Use moratorium as last resort & not the first resort
Dont let moratorium uplift to hamper you in becoming NPA
Leverage borrowing is a double edge sword
Today's problems faced by developers is due to high leverage
Enhance the equity cushion by making compromise on valuations
Focus on completing projects rather than starting new ones
Developers should work in partnerships

Family business: Take home less money from family business & keep money in the business

Need to ensure legal system doesn't fall out
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!