Week 6 of Covid-19 crisis: one citizen's assessment of where we stand. Spoiler: what needs to be happening isn't happening, and the president isn't even talking about it. We need a Lincoln but have a Buchanan. OK, here goes. (1/11) @BrookingsGov
Lockdown/isolation are temporarily effective but brutally costly and unsustainable. Lockdown costs trillions and causes huge human disruption. Must be lifted before long. Every day needs to be spent building for post-lockdown. (2/11)
Lifting lockdown with current testing and tracing capability would cause viral resurgence. Also costs trillions with potentially even huger human disruption. (3/11)
That leaves option No. 3. VASTLY increase testing capacity, by one or two orders of magnitude, and build MAJOR infrastructure for contact tracing. Do it now, before lockdown is lifted. (4/11)
Testing and tracing together can get ahead of the virus by shutting down asymptomatic spread. Nothing else works, and both are needed. (5/11)
NB, testing is a big job but tracing is even bigger. Requires major logistics and coordination. Build, test, deploy apps; decide privacy safeguards; coordinate state health services; get Cong'l authorizations; inform and prepare the public; etc. (6/11)
Important new study from Microsoft researchers shows that testing and tracing need to be an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is currently talking about... (7/11) ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-f…
...but that is still one or two orders of magnitude cheaper than the status quo or an under-prepared reopening. ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-f… (8/11)
In short: there's really only one thing to do, and we're not doing it. Or even really talking about doing it. POTUS should be leading a whole-of-government test/trace mobilization RIGHT NOW. Should be reporting every day on progress. Should be focused like a laser. (9/11)
Instead he's berating the press, claiming his brain is the strategy, and "hoping to God." It's the greatest presidential failure of leadership in my lifetime (and I lived through Vietnam). Maybe since Buchanan. (10/11)
Meanwhile, the rollout of testing is *slowing*. This is not good. See @bradstuartmd today. bradstuartmd.us/how-the-u-s-co… (11/11)
