Profile picture
, 7 tweets, 3 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Friedrich Hayek has some good explanations for why your epidemiologists' models were so far from reality.

mises.org/library/preten…
Expectation is the mother of disappointment.
Nobody can possibly know what kind of implications will result from an open-ended suspension of economic activity.
Just because you can run a model of a social phenomenon does not mean society has to function according to the specifications of your model. If you can't reliably predict things, accept the world is more complex than your model & stop asking others to live their lives by it.
Not enough people know Hayek's work on complexity.

Brian Arthur, of the Santa Fe Institute which is at the forefront of modern complexity research admitted all they achieved was to rediscover the Austrians

reason.com/1996/01/01/com…
What I'd give to see Hayek taking on today's hysterical ignoramuses & their catastrophic plans for saving the world.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."
- FA Hayek
Only by reading Hayek can you avoid being surprised that the projections that have shut down the world are so ridiculously, completely, irredeemably wrong.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Saifedean Ammous

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @saifedean see all

Profile picture
Saifedean Ammous
@saifedean
The hysterical models that have shut down the world forgot to account for the millions of healthy people at very low risk of serious complications from coronavirus whose livelihood were destroyed.

But Science means never having to say you're sorry!
Panicky statists who don't understand the complexity of markets imagine that an economy is like a game that can be paused and resumed at will. Stay home for 3 inconvenient months then life gets back to normal. But markets are not a simulation, they're more like a living ecosystem
As an ecosystem markets are made up of many living organisms, each of which is only able to survive because it has managed to find a place and a way to produce something valuable to others in this highly complex order. These jobs & firms are very hard to build but easy to destroy
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Saifedean Ammous
@saifedean
A very large number of businesses is now practically insolvent because of the shut downs. What will survive, and who will get to own it, will to a very large extent depend on who can get the lowest interest rate loans from their local central bank.
#TheFiatStandard
Central banks are increasingly buying more equity, but also determining the ownership of equity through their allocation of credit. Bureaucratic decisions are becoming more important as the private market for capital is becoming increasingly ceremonial.
In an alternative universe with a hard money that holds its value over time, businesses and individuals would hold on to cash balances.

That would not just allow them to invest when the right opportunity comes, but also protects them from personal, national, or global crises.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Saifedean Ammous
@saifedean
So many experts made apocalyptic projections of millions of deaths based on this WHO-funded model's R0.

None of them has any idea how the number was made, as the clown who made it won't share it. None of them is even asking for it

Hysteria is the best antidote to clear thinking
-A charlatan predicts an apocalypse with numbers
-WHO funding & good PR gets his moronic numbers lots of press
-Blinded by hysteria, experts call for a global shutdown before even getting to see the numbers
-Any questions & objections means you want to see millions die.
Suspending critical thinking whenever someone has a scare story is not intelligent caution. It just means you're easily manipulated.

Enjoy the hysteria, but don't expect intelligent grown-ups to go along with every chicken little adventure you get manipulated into.
Read 9 tweets

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!