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A case where an epidemiologist (reknowned for debunking bad science!) minimized the threat of coronavirus and gave people very bad advice.

Experts don't all speak with one voice. And sometimes an expert gets things badly wrong.
I first learned this during the Great Recession. Though most economists realized the need for fiscal stimulus, a loud minority disagreed vigorously, and gave very bad advice in the crisis.

delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/09/a-…
Experts are not a hive mind. Some of them get things wrong. Some more than others. Some have a narrow area of expertise but speak confidently on things they don't study. Some have political biases.

Pay attention to the disagreements.
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
Hopefully the "rally round the flag" bump is dissipating and people are realizing how monumentally incompetent Trump and his administration are, in the face of this once-in-a-century crisis.

...but it's probably just reversion to the mean
We're headed for 20% employment and the global economy is crashing and more Americans will die than died in the Vietnam War, and yet we STILL haven't found a real threat that Trump supporters care about more than the Culture Wars.
The reply-tweets here are illustrative.
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
I bet that most places can reduce caseloads to manageable levels and implement #TestAndTrace by May 15. So if I had to bet on when shutdowns can start being lifted, that would be my bet. Maybe earlier in California and some other places, maybe later in NYC.
This is basically what the experts I've heard from have said.

Test-and-Trace systems are coming together fairly rapidly, with software becoming available, testing volume OK in many places, and big states recruiting workers. In a month I think we'll be ready...
But after lockdown is lifted, we'll have a few more months of caution. Everyone will wear masks, individual social distancing will continue, schools will be closed, big gatherings will be banned, people will sit far apart at restaurants, many will work from home.
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
I was HEAVILY lambasted on Twitter for saying I thought it sounded possible that the coronavirus *might* have escaped from a lab.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Incidentally I was also heavily lambasted on Twitter for saying I thought masks were a good idea, before the consensus shifted decisively toward "masks are a good idea".
In a crisis situation, one of the ways that people grope for a feeling of control and safety is to find people who express doubt about current conventional wisdom and lambaste them.
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