Thread: What we know and don’t know on the origins of Covid-19: Was it bio-engineered? Did it escape from a lab in Wuhan? What does the evidence tell us so far? Here's a layman's attempt to parse through some of the theories doing the rounds.
The first widespread theory was SARS-Cov-2 was biowarfare gone wrong. The origin of this theory can be sourced to this report: washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/…
Growing evidence suggests strongly we can rule out the likelihood of the virus being a bioweapon. This study says there is "strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of genetic engineering" noting its genome is 96% identical to bat coronaviruses virological.org/t/the-proximal…
Others have pointed out why it would be such a crappy bio-weapon. This excellent thread from Angela Rasmussen at Columbia is worth reading in full on this question.
However, saying it was not bio-engineered isn’t the same as saying a lab wasn’t the source.
We don’t know if the original bat was in a wet market, or passed it to a pangolin at a wet market, or was being studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). Frankly, there is no evidence to conclusively prove any of these, which is perhaps why speculation is rife.
A lot of attention has now focused on the possibility of an accident at the WIV (a theory that is being rather actively propagated by some members of the Trump administration).
This Washington Post story told us quoting from a US State Department cable that there were serious concerns about safety issues at the lab going back to 2018. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
The story does not, however, provide any evidence to suggest there was an accident at the lab. It is worth reading this thread for some of the questions that the piece does not answer:
The thread also makes an interesting point that the lab theory seems to be favoured more by political/national security journalists, and less so by virologists. Something to ponder.
Back to the WIV. The Scientific American published the most detailed story I’ve seen yet on both WIV and the work being done on bat coronaviruses by its scientist Shi Zhengli scientificamerican.com/article/how-ch…
You should read the whole piece in full, but its worth highlighting some bits. One year ago Shi published this study warning on the increasing likelihood and the dangers from cross-transmissions mdpi.com/1999-4915/11/3…
Was SARS-CoV-2 being studied at the WIV? That's the trillion dollar question. This is what Shi tells Scientific American: 
To be fair, her words alone are not much to go on. But that’s where we are.
There is more we don’t know than we do.
Since we live in a world where we can't seem to accept 'We don't know!' - we *have* to know and *now* - expect the free-for-all speculation to continue!
(ends)
There is more we don’t know than we do.
Since we live in a world where we can't seem to accept 'We don't know!' - we *have* to know and *now* - expect the free-for-all speculation to continue!
(ends)
