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COVID19 isn't the flu.

But for under-45, COVID hospitalizes 1% & kills .014%.

All ages, flu hospitalizes 1.5% & kills 0.13%.

Restricting COVID to under-45s results in 6x flu hospitalizations & 1x flu deaths, & gets us to herd immunity.

Shelter the old, but release the young!

Herd immunity for R0=2.5 is 60%

58% of US population is < 44

Flu infects ~10% of US pop annually

20-44 hospitalization rate = 14.3%–20.8%; <20 = 1.6%–2.5% (CDC)

20-44 fatality rate = 0.1%-0.2%; <20 = 0% (CDC)

Missing 1/4-1/2 deaths, 9/10 cases (NS)
This does not mean you are just as likely to die of the flu as you are of COVID19.

It means a young person is 7x more likely to be hospitalized by COVID19 as a mostly older person would from the flu, and as likely to die overall, as a mostly older person would be of the flu.

Not an epidemiologist

Model is as simple as possible, but no simpler

Of course:
• The hard part is separating those > 44!
• some <45 have co-morbidities
• many >44 are healthy & strong

Better therapeutics can lower CFR

Need to flatten curve for hospital beds
Substantive comments and critiques welcomed.

Outraged and unconstructive people, including "stay in your lane" comments will be mercilessly blocked.
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