But for under-45, COVID hospitalizes 1% & kills .014%.
All ages, flu hospitalizes 1.5% & kills 0.13%.
Restricting COVID to under-45s results in 6x flu hospitalizations & 1x flu deaths, & gets us to herd immunity.
Shelter the old, but release the young!
Herd immunity for R0=2.5 is 60%
58% of US population is < 44
Flu infects ~10% of US pop annually
20-44 hospitalization rate = 14.3%–20.8%; <20 = 1.6%–2.5% (CDC)
20-44 fatality rate = 0.1%-0.2%; <20 = 0% (CDC)
Missing 1/4-1/2 deaths, 9/10 cases (NS)
It means a young person is 7x more likely to be hospitalized by COVID19 as a mostly older person would from the flu, and as likely to die overall, as a mostly older person would be of the flu.
Not an epidemiologist
Model is as simple as possible, but no simpler
• The hard part is separating those > 44!
• some <45 have co-morbidities
• many >44 are healthy & strong
Better therapeutics can lower CFR
Need to flatten curve for hospital beds
Outraged and unconstructive people, including "stay in your lane" comments will be mercilessly blocked.