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Pretty clear there is a structural under-reporting of the daily Covid-19 deaths in hospital figures. The daily death figures are not those who have died with Covid-19 but those who have died *having tested positive* for Covid-19. gov.uk/guidance/coron…
I don't have data on what proportion of those going into hospital are being tested for Covid-19 but all those I have spoken to say that there is a significant number of those dying in hospital with Covid-19 who were never tested - and so won't appear in the daily death figures.
If Covid-19 is reported on the death certificate of those dying, untested, in hospital with Covid-19 then those deaths will be captured in the (delayed) ONS figures.

But the real question is, how profoundly are even the daily death in hospital figures being under-reported.
And here's yet another reason why the daily death in hospital figures which only report those who tested positive for Covid-19 will substantially under-report: false negatives.
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Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
Short and important postscript on 'casual' workers and the CJRS. A well known financial journalist raised the questions flagged in my Opinion with HMRC and received some responses which will raise a wry smile with lawyers but should help those engaging casual workers. THREAD.
The first issue was whether pay to casual workers qualifies at all. As a matter of law, I don't think it does. HMRC says they disagree on the law - fair enough - but more importantly that 'customers' only need to work from the guidance.
The second issue was whether there is a bear trap for engagers of casual labour who have no financial incentive to apply the scheme: inadvertently underpay workers and you lose all rights to reimbursement; overpay and you can't recover the overpayment.
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Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
I have been up most of the night looking - for a client who employs 000s - at the legal detail of the coronavirus job retention scheme. This, of course, is the scheme that is suppose to help those in employment. I have REAL concerns that it won't help the most vulnerable. THREAD.
The difficulties arise for, in particular, 'casual' workers: i.e. those who work intermittently, often through agencies, and/or those on Zero Hours Contracts. /1
Now the guidance that HMRC has published is pretty clear that they are within the scope of the CJRS (gov.uk/guidance/claim…).

But are they? /2
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Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
Geeky - but rather important - question about the operation of the CJRS for those working intermittently through an umbrella or an agency. How can the employer - for these purposes the umbrella/agency - know whether the cessation is attributable to coronavirus?
It's of the essence of these types of arrangements that the work will be intermittent. The umbrella/agency might take a decent stab at whether the interruption is attributable to coronavirus but if it gets that judgment wrong it's risking a great deal of money.
And there is little incentive for it to take any risk at all. It might be happy - it might even positively want to - help its intermittent workforce. But there's no financial incentive for the umbrella/agency and getting the judgment wrong could well be existential.
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