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Andy Rowell Profile picture
@AndyRowell
Apr 10, 2020 • 19 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
I have not seen any expert who thinks the IHME projection modeling is excellent. It is based on reported covid deaths and it is regularly redone to fit curves in other countries. It was just invented in March to help the state of WA. It is an estimate based on Wuhan and Italy.
But there is no other public updated national model. So, it is useful to give the public some idea since tens of thousands is hard to picture. But it fluctuates based on reported deaths. It does not take into account poor testing.
See threads below to learn more.
Huge: It only models the first wave and assumes only 3% will be infected. "Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June ... an estimated 97% of the population will still be susceptible."
healthdata.org/covid/faqs
We see evidence that in hard-hit areas, 14% are affected in the first wave.

The point is that a huge number of people (97-86% of people) are still vulnerable to outbreaks after the first wave is slowed due to lock-downs.
Also the second wave begins not long after the first wave are supposedly stopped.
Other models:

GLEAM national model: gleamproject.org/covid-19#model April 11 peak time for deaths in the US.

LANL state model: covid-19.bsvgateway.org Cases will peak mid-April to mid-May.

CU Epi county medical capacity: columbia.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvie…

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More from @AndyRowell

Andy Rowell Profile picture
Jan 9
"Leadership" is often an incoherent field of study. Often it's anecdotal. "Here's what I did to ... win the game ... make a lot of money ... win the war ... win an election."
But below I sketch a few conceptual foundations of Leadership and note their practical value. 👇
Properly, Leadership is a subdiscipline of Ethics (how to live well), which is a subdiscipline of Philosophy.
Within Christianity, Leadership is also properly a subdiscipline of Ethics (how to live well with the presupposition God has spoken in Scripture and in Jesus Christ), which is a subdiscipline of Theology.
Read 12 tweets
Andy Rowell Profile picture
Jun 21, 2022
Oh wow. Franklin Graham's Samaritan's Purse (a "non-profit organization") made $224,339,099 in 2020 in profit (Revenue less expenses"). $224 million.
Number of independent members of the board at Samaritan's Purse. 9 of 16 in 2020. They lost 3 independent members and added another family member since the previous year in 2019.
Samaritan's Purse has 11 people paid over $200,000 in base salary.
Read 6 tweets
Andy Rowell Profile picture
Feb 8, 2022
- 79% of Americans are comfortable with a female pastor, but only 39% of evangelicals.
- 72.8% of evangelicals are fine with a woman preaching on Sunday morning.
- 3% of evangelical congregations and 30% of mainline congregations have a female senior pastor.

See sources below.
According to a 2016 Barna survey,
79% of Americans would be comfortable with a female priest or pastor.
barna.com/research/ameri…
But only 39% of evangelicals would be.
Only 13.5% of U.S. congregations in 2018-2019 had a female as the head or senior clergyperson.
Or slicing the data differently, only 7.4% of U.S. attendees attend a congregation with a female as the head or senior clergyperson.
Read 7 tweets
Andy Rowell Profile picture
Feb 8, 2022
Thread of comments on books from 2019-2021 on women and Christianity. They are all worth reading.
Books on: famous women leaders, practical support for women, biblical description, history of masculine militarism, bad sex in Christian marriages, and the history of patriarchy.
The Preacher's Wife: The Precarious Power of Evangelical Women Celebrities
October 1, 2019
by Kate Bowler @KatecBowler

History of prominent women leaders in American Christianity.
Better Together: How Women and Men Can Heal the Divide and Work Together to Transform the Future
February 11, 2020
by Danielle Strickland @djstrickland

Practical reflection on empowering women in leadership.
Read 7 tweets
Andy Rowell Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022
These pieces are revealing. For them, Christianity is using any means necessary to rally people to make America more like 1980's white Christianity. It is not humbly reading the Bible together so as to learn how to act like Jesus.
,
They did in their youth read the Bible and became convinced about what it was saying to American culture. And now they are in a position of power to rally people to that. But did we stop reading the Bible afresh? Is Christian political coercion of non-Christians the right goal?
Is not the political witness of Christians primarily one of example, of love, of integrity, and sharing of the hope that there is a God who is bringing a kingdom of love? Yes, advocate in the public sphere for the common good. Be salt and light. But still act like Jesus!
Read 4 tweets
Andy Rowell Profile picture
Jan 7, 2022
Quick thread on the decline of church attendance.
Anecdotal evidence:
People are leaving their house less often in general.
Read 8 tweets

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