@PeterContiBrown Peter, as a US Federal Reserve expert, wanted to ask you a question about negative interest rates. Do you think the FRA as currently written provides a legal basis for implementing them?
Looking at section 11 in particular, the language doesn't seem to provide much room. Hard to see how "balances may ... receive earnings to be paid by the Fed" could be reasonably interpreted as "balances may ... incur interest expense to be paid to the Fed."
Was thinking maybe they could use Section 11A to impose a fee for the service of holding excess reserves, but fees for services have to match costs actually incurred.
Similar language in other places--seems to be a general constraint that fees equal expenses.
Maybe could argue that in an environment where the true economic rate of interest is negative, holding balances at any rate less than that rate creates an effective expense for the Fed, but that would seem really squirrely and unpersuasive.
As someone close to these matters, interested in your view on the legality itself and on the Fed's likely view/approach to the legality. On my read, congress would need to amend, which is significant bc many mkt participants are under impression would be as easy as any other cut.
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"Transitory" is a term that the Fed introduced. It was the basis for their initial view that the post-Covid inflation was not the kind of inflation that warranted a monetary response.
The reason that the Fed stayed the course on QE/ZIRP when monthly core PCE ran past target in early-mid 2021 was that they thought it would soon subside, and that pushing against it would jeopardize employment while delivering no meaningful benefit to price stability.
Their sensitivities at the time were informed by the experience of late 2018, where, in their view, they overtightened and almost caused a recession. They didn't want to repeat that episode, especially after a traumatic societal experience like Covid.
🧵Charts of real foreign exchange rates of various foreign indices. High value = expensive currency, low value = cheap currency, measured wrt real purchasing power:
There's obviously a sense in which this statement is true, but it relies on a definition of money that can be unnecessarily broad and confusing IMO, particularly when trying to understand the constraints faced by a bank.
If it's true that, by issuing loans, banks can create money out of thin air, then why wasn't SVB able to save itself with this power? Why didn't it just lend money to itself & use that money to pay off its depositors?
It's better IMO to think of money as *base* money--in a fiat system, balances w/ the issuing entity (e.g., the Fed), and in a physical monetary system, the physical thing itself (e.g., in a gold-based system, the actual gold).
There are already mechanisms, outside of standing, for dealing w/ a large pool of potential plaintiffs. There have to be for the system to function, since, even under the current test, it's possible for an extremely large number of people to have standing on a given issue.
Look at Obergefell (gay marriage) as an example. With over a million US same-sex couples, how many discrimination cases could have been constructed similar to that case? There were, in fact, several cases--the court just grouped them together. No reason that couldn't happen here.
Of all arguments against rate hikes, the Erdogan-style "rate hikes constrict supply" argument is by far the weakest. Can't speak to the empirical evidence for it, b/c there is no evidence, anywhere, in any economy. But analytically, it's just sloppy.
Companies that are producing into critical shortages have the tailwinds of pricing power & elevated profit at their backs. Of all potential borrowers, they are the least threatened by increases in funding costs, which are a small side consideration relative to their windfalls.
What may constrain them, as w/ O&G at the current moment, is confidence that the current pricing power and level of profitability will be sustained over the necessary term. But that's a different matter, not primarily contingent on interest rates.
Proposal to make MMT symmetrically-credible wrt aggregate demand management:
Retirement funds for all citizens. 100% in I-bonds. Fed specifies what % of monthly income gets paid into it, by bracket. Crucially, not a tax. Rather, "Mandatory Saving."
Funds can only be withdrawn under the following circumstances:
(1) 10K per year after age 67, or if disabled.
(2) Qualifying Medical Emergency.
Remaining funds bequeathed. Idea is to make people want to get money out of it if they can. For stimulus, Fed can release specific amounts of it for discretionary use (eg, $1K check). Fed can also cut % to zero, or set negative by putting own profit or treasury funding into it.