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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly-reported deaths:
Today: 1,774
Yesterday: 2,069
One week ago (4/11): 1,867

Newly-reported cases:
T: 26K
Y: 31K
4/11: 30K

Newly-reported tests:
T: 133K
Y: 156K
4/11: 136K

Share of positive tests:
T: 20%
Y: 20%
4/11: 22%
Today we hit a positive milestone: it was the first day on which the number of deaths was less than on the same day a week earlier. Let's watch to see if we can get a few more of those in the next several days.
Note though that some of the positive news of late has been driven by NY/NJ/CT, which does seem to have turned some kind of corner. It's possible we could get a bimodal peak if NY/NJ/CT decline while the numbers elsewhere worsen.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US numbers via @COVID19Tracking.

LOTS of tests today.

Newly-reported deaths
Today: 2,194
Yesterday: 1,772
One week ago (4/18): 1,774

Newly-reported cases
T: 41K
Y: 31K
4/18: 28K

Newly-reported tests
T: 301K
Y: 224K
4/18: 141K

Share of tests positive
T: 14%
Y: 14%
4/18: 20%
The rise in the number of cases shouldn't be alarming. We're suddenly doing about twice as many tests as we were a week ago, which is good, so we're finding more cases.

Still, back over 2,000 deaths, and on a weekend no less (usually slower for reporting). That's not good.
Something I'm not sure about: does improving test capacity also lead to correctly identifying more deaths as having been from COVID-19? It seems possible that's true in some edge cases, but I have no idea how widespread.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
WHO needs to improve its communication on this.

When they say “no evidence” they mean something like “no definitive proof, yet”.

But the average person is going to read it as “there’s no immunity to coronavirus”, which is likely false and not a good summation of the evidence.
The consensus of the evidence, as best as I can tell, is that there’s very likely to be some degree of immunity, although we don’t know how absolute it is and for how long it confers and there's still a lot to be learned about it. nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opi…
WHO has fucked this up on other issues too, such as masks. Definitive proof is hard to come by in the early stages of a new disease. So you have to work through priors, probabilities, incomplete evidence. theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly-reported deaths:
Today: 1,772
Yesterday: 1,886
One week ago (4/17): 2,069

Newly-reported cases:
T: 31K
Y: 31K
4/17: 31K

Newly-reported tests:
T: 224K
Y: 191K
4/17: 156K

Share of tests positive:
T: 14%
Y: 16%
4/17: 20%
Most encouraging numbers in a while. Deaths are still very high, but this is now 3 straight days where deaths were less than the same day a week earlier.

Meanwhile, the testing logjam finally seems to have been broken a bit as we're suddenly at ~200K tests per day.
At the same time, I don't know that it's going be as simple as a neat and tidy fall from a peak. In a number of states, cases are still rising (even after adjusting for increases in test volume). And restrictions are being relaxed in GA and perhaps in other places soon.
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