If you think lifting the lockdown would prevent the worst economic depression since the 1930s, you are deluding yourself.
Not all countries locked down. But every country, without exception, is suffering a sharp fall in GDP. The whole world is in recession.
And because the whole world is in recession, GDP growth in individual countries will be insensitive to domestic policy actions. The more open the country the more insensitive it will be. "No man is an island," and all that.
Even for relatively closed countries like the US, the domestic confidence effect will be a drag on growth for quite some time. Ordering the lockdown to be lifted won't make people come out of their houses, and businesses won't spring to life unless they do.
So there is going to be a global depression whether or not lockdowns are lifted. And no country (except maybe North Korea) is immune from a global depression. We are all going down together.
"And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for thee".
The international nature of the economic shock from the virus is not widely recognised imho. Most people treat the shock as primarily domestic in origin and propose domestic policies to mitigate it, such as lifting lockdowns early and distributing cheques.
International shocks need international responses. The IMF is trying to provide some leadership on this, as is the Federal Reserve. But as yet there is no sign of the coordinated government action that will be needed to mitigate the global depression that now appears inevitable.
@threadreaderapp could you unroll this for me please?
