The Coronavirus model projections have changed as time has passed. Not surprisingly, this has emboldened the anti-science movement in America. But, this is actually a great opportunity to watch science happen in real-time, and there are some important lessons: (Thread)
First, models are estimates. Educated guesses based on assumptions. And any model for a previously unknown virus is precarious. Still, even in the early days of an unfolding pandemic, they are by far the best way to determine our initial response.
Exponential models, in particular, are susceptible to wild swings in numerical projections based on small tweaks to inputs. That’s math. And, as better info is gathered (which continues to happen very quickly at this stage in a pandemic) the numbers will continue to change.
During pandemics, we WANT projections to change, not just because that means that preventative measures are working, but because it means that the inputs are becoming more reliable based on new and better information.
There is still A LOT to learn about this virus. For instance, the infection rate may be several times higher than previously thought. In other words, the projections will change again. And again. Each guess better than before. It’s fascinating to watch.
Given our rapidly evolving understanding, this is NOT the time to declare victory over the virus and return to life as normal. And thinking that way isn’t oppressive or “anti-freedom.” And regardless of how loud the screaming gets, it’s not political. The virus isn’t red or blue.
Some US politicians have questioned climate models since Coronavirus models have changed. However, changing projections are actually a reason to have MORE confidence in our climate models, as they have been receiving better inputs year over year, and thus becoming more accurate.
In summary, we’re not seeing a failure of science. For anyone willing to notice, we are getting a public lesson in science. A lesson in science that directly affects our lives and the lives of those we love.
It’s a lesson we can’t afford to ignore.
It’s a lesson we can’t afford to ignore.
