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Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.*

Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%

If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
To be fair, all serology tests, if biased, would bias the same way. When the actual percent infected is low and population samples are small, false positives will have an outsized impact compared to false negatives. But none of these shows less than a 10x undercount.
USC serology study just released showing 28-55x undercount. It’s vulnerable to the same critiques as the Stanford study.

Are we going to split into camps of Serology Deniers and Serology Believers? 🤔

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