Thread by @mtrajan

@nntaleb ideas are important for us & future generations. Yet his ideas are not easy to understand. Not for kids. They are summarized on the internet, but in no place are they translated for a 11 year old.

Created below pics for my nephew

Taleb for kids - Randomness (1/11)

Don’t drive life forward looking into rear view mirror of experiences (2/11)

We are blind to future, what next can be a treasure or exploding landmine (3/11)

Extending past, leads to false confidence and can kill you (4/11)

Don’t pick pennies in front of a stream roller

Small gains followed by disaster is worse outcome (5/11)

Never Play Russian Roulette

Only take affordable bets (6/11)

Stay away from the people that only know about bad luck

Attribution bias makes feel good (7/11)

Don’t listen to speech from lottery winners. Ask where are the dead?

Aka Survivorship bias (8/11)

Looking back it will always make sense

Hindsight bias fools your mind (9/11)

Memory will be sweet and simple, not remember the actual

Narrative bias creates a soothing feeling (10/11)

Jumping traffic to save time credits it in Hell

In smallest of decision act based on consequence (11/11)

Next section, Taleb for kids - On models

#TalebForKids #Models (1/12)

Map will take you to your place most of the times. But not always. Map is not reality

Double check your maps.

#TalebForKids #Models (2/12)

A 6ft man can drown in river that is four feet deep on average.

Don’t trust averages

#TalebForKids #Models (3/12)

Measuring a building with a scale does not tell the height of the building but shortness of the scale

Check your scale

#TalebForKids #Models (4/12)

You did not find it does not mean it does not exist

Be Careful asking for Proof

#TalebForKids #Models (5/12)

Mental models are inherited or created by daydreaming

Question mental models

#TalebForKids #Models (6/12)

Beliefs are mental models that science cannot test therefore cannot answer

Faith is outside science

#TalebForKids #Models (7/12)

Theories are mental models that is testable. True scientist looks to prove it wrong

Science is right till wrong. Limiting. Rely carefully

#TalebForKids #Models (8/12)

Don’t make model error in things not known

Model confusion is a leading cause of fighting

#TalebForKids #Models (9/12)

Stay away from words such as ‘data says’, ‘forecast’ in complex life critical decisions

Humility is better than confidence for survival

#TalebForKids #Models (10/12)

Don’t confuse time average to space average.Aka Ergodicity

Don't let numbers without context fool you

#TalebForKids #Models (11/12)

Sequence of what you do matters

Explains why some weird things exist. Example - QWERTY keyboard

#TalebForKids #Models (12/12)