A week ago KKR put out a long piece on the economic implications of COVID.
kkr.com/global-perspec…
Below are the quotes I clipped/saved.
kkr.com/global-perspec…
Below are the quotes I clipped/saved.
"We estimate that hours worked in the United States have fallen 62% in just the past few weeks.”
"We do not look for a traditionally sharp snapback in the second half of 2020.”
"De-leveraging will take years, not months, to work through.”
"We do not look for a traditionally sharp snapback in the second half of 2020.”
"De-leveraging will take years, not months, to work through.”
"We are now entering a period of slower nominal GDP growth amidst lower inflation, or even disinflation/deflation.”
"Heavy debt loads will impede growth, we believe, at a time when demographics and re-regulation are likely to act as further headwinds.”
"Heavy debt loads will impede growth, we believe, at a time when demographics and re-regulation are likely to act as further headwinds.”
“Expect second quarter 2020 GDP to fall between 20-40% depending on the country/region, compared to the worst quarter during the GFC sequentially at eight percent.”
"We think that total monetary and fiscal stimulus in the United States could approach 35% (of GDP).”
"We think that total monetary and fiscal stimulus in the United States could approach 35% (of GDP).”
"On the private side, investors are likely to see substantial opportunities to de-lever high quality companies, provide rescue financings, restructure weak balance sheets, and create significant M&A synergies in near-term distressed sectors.”
“We expect a wave of large scale divestitures, rescue financings, liquidity bridges, restructurings, and industry roll-ups.”
“There will likely be a more elongated slowdown in luxury travel out of China that will have an impact on tourism from Tokyo to Paris to New York City.”
“There will likely be a more elongated slowdown in luxury travel out of China that will have an impact on tourism from Tokyo to Paris to New York City.”
“We believe online experiences will blossom. E-commerce too will accelerate its upward trajectory."
"We believe that Infrastructure as an asset class could be experiencing somewhat of a golden age.”
"We believe that Infrastructure as an asset class could be experiencing somewhat of a golden age.”
"AI will likely play a large part in building competitive advantage across healthcare, shopping, gaming, transportation, and payments."
"Investors should expect that the coronavirus will advantage online over offline faster.”
"Investors should expect that the coronavirus will advantage online over offline faster.”
"Infrastructure as an asset class could be experiencing somewhat of a golden age.”
"Globalization has peaked. We envision a more regionalized model, with the Americas coalescing around the US and Asia around China. Europe is likely to vacillate somewhere in the middle.”
"Globalization has peaked. We envision a more regionalized model, with the Americas coalescing around the US and Asia around China. Europe is likely to vacillate somewhere in the middle.”
