Sorta shocked at people who still believe this virus popped up in March. In a few months, I suspect what we know—the outbreak spread for several weeks before testing began, health care system absorbed it, ppl recovered w/o massive intervention—will look much different than now:
Genuinely curious why our house arrest overlords at @IHME_UW haven’t “modeled” COVID-19 rates for December-February? If they can see into the future, why not evaluate real data that already exists 🤔
One reason the Murray model struck me as dubious from the start is bc it failed to factor in any data or assumptions pre-March 1. The purpose, as I wrote here last month, was to re-create the scary hockey stick-like graphs that worked for climate science:
amgreatness.com/2020/03/31/hoc…
amgreatness.com/2020/03/31/hoc…
