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So here's your boring, weekly testing update.

There was a crazy bump in tests today -- all from California that cleared out is massive backlog.

If you drop the crazy California fluctuations, are we making progress on tests?

Short answer....Not really. Ugh.

1/3
Excluding California

Last wednesday April 15, we did 146,857 tests

Today, April 22, we did 146,157 tests.

Basically, over last 3 weeks, we have been flat.

We can talk about whatever random issue we want but here is the bottom line:

2/3
It doesn't matter what politicians are telling you

Reality is

We aren't making progress

We're shut down bc we didn't have testing

If we open without enough testing, we'll shut down again

Everyone knows it

Administration knows it

My goodness we need to ramp up testing

Fin
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More from @ashishkjha see all

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Ashish "I'm still focused on testing" Jha
@ashishkjha
This is an important new finding and one that requires some quick reflections. Thread

We have all been very interested in seroprevalence studies

Why?

Because we're wondering whether the proportion of the population that has been infected is much larger than we might think

1/n
If a much larger proportion has been infected, that would be great for two reasons:

1. Disease milder than we think (lower fatality rate, etc.)
2. We are closer to herd immunity than we thought.

2/n
So far, 270K NYers have been found to be infected. That's 1.3% of NY State population (of 19.5 million).

We all know that the true rate is much higher? Why?

Because we've been under testing!!

How much higher?

I've argued that we identify about 1 in 10 folks with COVID19

3/n
Read 9 tweets
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Ashish "I'm still focused on testing" Jha
@ashishkjha
Short Thread:

VA study on Hydroxychloroquine for COVID19 getting a lot of attention.

President Trump has been touting HCQ as a possible miracle drug.

Study from the VA finds HIGHER mortality for those on HCQ.

So should this study put HCQ for COVID19 to rest?

No....

1/3
Why not?

1 Not peer-reviewed. We should treat all pre-peer-review papers with more skepticism

2 Not an RCT but retrospective look at those who got HCQ vs those who didn't

3 As expected, groups are VERY different. Those on HCQ are much sicker...worse outcomes no surprise

2/3
If you like they study, you'll argue:

1. They adjust for baseline differences (we know this is imperfect, which is why we like RCTs)

2. It rules out a massive benefit (may be...but that's a low bar)

3. Its no worse than anecdotes that supporters of HCQ have touted. Sure.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Ashish "I'm still focused on testing" Jha
@ashishkjha
Thread:

Its pretty clear that we aren't doing enough testing.

But how much is "enough"? There is no easy way to assess.

So over the past few weeks, we've been trying to take different approaches to estimate this number.

The first question is -- enough for what?

1/n
What if I want to identify all COVID19 patients?

That's easy -- test all 320 million Americans (assuming a perfect test)

OK...that's impractical

What if I wanted to capture "most" patients. It begins by first estimating how many people have COVID today?

Our estimate....

2/n
Our estimate is that there are about 150K+ new COVID19 infections in the US per day right now.

If we want to identify most COVID19 patients, we estimate probably need to be doing a couple of million tests today

3/n
Read 6 tweets

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