Thread by @OmairTAhmad

1. There's been a lot of superficial analysis on the sudden burst of social media criticism in Arab states against NRI Muslim-bashing.

Much of this misses the point and is based on nothing but fond suppositions, as such it ignores the biggest story: the decline of Indian power.

2. To begin with let's deal with the argument that this backlash didn't have government consent.

This is foolish. Undemocratic regimes are far more concerned with public opinion than democratic ones.

Once citizens start criticising politics. they may start criticising their own

3. There is a reason for the Great Firewall of China, why Iran is building the same. Twitter is closely monitored in Saudi. In Kuwait having a VPN can get you into jail (just like in Kashmir).

Undemocratic regimes are very careful about which political opinions get voiced.

4. It is naive in the extreme to believe that days of social media attacks on prominent NRI bigots happened without the notice of regimes.

The response from the Indian PMO and its embassies abroad confirmed this, if confirmation was needed.

5. What NRIs were being told was: "You're well paid employees, don't exceed your limits."

That message was received, and reinforced by the government of India's response.

And now the story has come to an end.

6. But here's the rub: countries are pretty prickly about their well-heeled expats being disciplined.

The US is an extreme case, but it has made itself notorious in not allowing other countries to deal with flagrant crimes committed by its citizens (like soldiers in Japan.)

7. Countries use their political and economic clout to do this.

Remember the Italians kept in prison after killing Indian fishermen? (Modi let them go back, even Italy has pull, though Dr Singh's government had refused, and the EU had preferred not to antagonise India then. 8)

8. This current spat has revealed how little clout India has.

The leverage we had as a big market is in the toilet, with unemployment surging and the economy at the knackers. Those NRIs aren't going to find high paying jobs here.

9. Worse, India has no partners to turn to. Despite Howdy Modi and the gushing in Delhi, Trump isn't going to pick up the phone on India's behalf.

Our last Republic Day Chief Guest was Bolsonaro, and who's going to listen to him?

10. For years India has followed a policy of not being in any camp, but since 2014 this has been overtly mercenary.

We are a country with no real allies, and our misguided attempts at bullying our neighbours means that we're also largely alone even in South Asia.

11. The consequences of 6 years of diplomatic dramabazi, of the horrific mismanagement of the economy, and the gutting of our reputation as a stable, peacefully inclined state, of mobs and murders, has left us deeply crippled.

This is the big story, which we should not miss.

(Shit, just realised I put in Kuwait, when it should have been Dubai. This is what happens when you type things too late at night. Sorry, my bad.)