France is extremely accurate in its daily reporting of Covid-19 deaths (much more so than UK) judging by the latest “excess mortality” figures issued by the French statistics agency, INSEE. The figures also reveal that one third of France has scarcely been touched by C19.
1/10
1/10
INSEE publishes figures for “all deaths” in France from 1 March - with a 10 day delay. The latest go up to 13 April. Compared to average 2018/2019, they show an “excess mortality” of 14,735. The govt estimate for Covid-19 deaths on 13 April was 14,697 - virtually the same. 2/10
The details are as follows.
Total deaths in France from 1 March to 13 April in 2018 (which was a “bad” flu year) 83,108.
Deaths in same period in 2019 (a “good” flu year) 75,100.
In 2020 - 83,108.
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Total deaths in France from 1 March to 13 April in 2018 (which was a “bad” flu year) 83,108.
Deaths in same period in 2019 (a “good” flu year) 75,100.
In 2020 - 83,108.
3/10
The INSEE figures also suggest (see their graph here) that the peak of the pandemic in France was passed in the first days of April. The curves on the graph show Covid-19 deaths jumping well beyond even the stats for the “bad flu” year 2018 from mid-March. 4/10 
INSEE also gives stats for every region/département (county) in France (but compared to “low flu” 2019 only). Although the pandemic has spread, it remains concentrated in Paris area (a 91% increase in mortality), E. France (61%), N. France and Burgundy (24%). 5/10
Département by département, the figures are startlingly varied. The worst-hit, Haut-Rhin (S. Alsace) has had 144% more deaths than 2019. Two Paris suburban départements, Seine Saint-Denis and Hauts de Seine, are 128% up. A bloc of 11 are 50% up. Another 35 are 20% higher. 6/10
But 23 départements, mostly in SW and centre, have actually had fewer deaths 1 March to 13 April than in 2019 (a good flu year). Another bloc of a dozen have scarcely seen any change. My own département Calvados, in Normandy, has only had a 2.1% increase (20 extra deaths). 7/10
Départements with fewer deaths this year include Tarn (down 20% or fewer 116 deaths), Tarn et Garonne (down 18.8%), Dordogne (down 10.6%) and Gers (down 3.8%), Alpes de Haute Provence (down 7.8%). 8/10
TENTATIVE CONCLUSION: France has made mistakes in coping with Covid-19 but prevented the disease from spreading. Its daily reporting of C19 deaths seems to be reliable. Without the big outbreak in S. Alsace, caused by one church gathering, French figs might be v. different. 9/10
Much is made of the “better” performance of some countries (ie Germany/Portugal) but what explains the better performance of some French regions? Luck? Less exposure to international travel? Does that also partially explain divergent national death rates? 10/10
CORRECTION in 3/10. Total deaths for 2020 should read 93,989.
