Thread by @jmartNYT

NEW: Republicans are sounding the 🚨

Trump’s daily self-sabotage, the Dems’ geyser-like small-dolllar fundraising and a raft of new private + public polling has some in GOP worried they could lose the WH and Senate

w @maggieNYT >

nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/…

In the wake of 2018, the virus and economic fallout have triggered painful memories for Republicans, who fear a replay of 2006-2008:

Two cycles in one that amounted to a repudiation of Republican rule

The WH race always overshadows downballot in prez years. And the virus has blocked out the sun on news entirely.

So the Q1 Senate $ numbers have been obscured.

But they are stunning.

Question is: does the ActBlue spigot slow for Dems w so many out of work?

The biggest difference between Twitter & real life politics (this month, at least) may be on the q of Biden-in-the-basement:

Most every Dem privately says the longer there is no campaign & it’s all a referendum on Trump the better

While Rs are the ones itching for him to emerge

And speaking of ‘08, outside the Big Four Sen races - IA, NC, ME, AZ - there are a number that could emerge late a la Begich-Ted Stevens (and no, not necessarily bc of federal charges)

Kansas the most likely — but both parties also watching Montana, Georgias and Iowa

*CO not IA in Big Four

One of the most consistent metrics on Trump: when the conversation is mostly about him in a political season, his/GOP numbers slide. Saw it in '16 and '18

The virus presents challenges to both parties Senate fundraising:

Actblue-reliant Dems may find donors w less disposable income, unable to give that $50

And perhaps more significant, incumbent Republicans won’t be able to hold the high-dollar events they rely on in Q2

But you have to give Sen Rs credit for resilience: they about ran table in '14 to win maj after Sen Dems enlarged majority in '12. In '16, they hung on to their own majority w wins in competitive states like PA, WI and NC. And despite Dem enthusiasm, they gained 2 seats in '18