Thread by @tomi

1/ THREAD: With sports on pause globally, there's talk about esports (competitive gaming) being a beneficiary, as many tournaments and competitions can be held online and thus take place, albeit in a different setting, regardless of restrictions imposed on society by COVID-19.

2/ Over the past few years, we’ve seen an increasing number of headline-worthy comparisons between traditional sports and esports, many of them comparing apples to oranges, at best, if we're being generous.

3/ Examples include comparing total unique viewers who tuned in even for a second across a week(s) long tournament on a free online live stream, to pay-TV AMA for a 3 hour game, or even worse – those who attended the Super Bowl in person.

4/ Given the significant growth of esports and gaming, many will continue entering the industry and touting flawed statistics to ride the wave and sell their snake oil to unsophisticated investors, or advertisers looking to tip their toes in the water.

5/ Reality is that in 2020, esports is a relatively small portion of gaming, which is yet smaller than traditional sports.

And that's fine -- those investing in gaming/esports aren't investing for what it is today, they’re in it for what they believe it will be in the future.

6/ Is it possible that COVID-19 moves the esports/gaming timeline ahead by a few quarters, or even years?

Sure, but that should not be the investment thesis and as such, it doesn't really move the needle.

So, what does matter?

7/ Average age of traditional sports fans continues rising at a rapid cliff, which is why many owners are diversifying into esports and gaming.

There are various data sources for this, but just look at the table below -- the only ones holding up well are NBA and MLS.

8/ If you do the math for 3 of the largest US sports leagues (MLB, NFL & NHL), the picture is sobering.

Annually between 2000-2016, NHL fans aged a year, NFL fans 0.4 years, and MLB fans 0.3 years on average.

The average fans at 2016 were 49, 50 and 57 years old, respectively.

9/ If you contrast that aging from 2006 instead (from same dataset), you get 0.7, 0.4 and 0.5 years per year.

The exact rate of change varies, but the trend is clear - the average age of a sports fan is growing, particularly as it related to the largest US sports (key market).

10/ If we use the 2000/2006-2016 growth rates to project the future, depending on the base year, in 2036 (2 decades later) we get to 69/63 for NHL, 58 for NHL, and 63/67 for MLB.

Average life expectancy in the US is 79 today (it’s lower for those born decades ago).

Tick tock.

11/ Why is the average age continuing to climb for traditional sports? No one has the complete answer, but gaming taking over sports for many kids’ favorite pastime growing up is certainly a piece of that puzzle, regardless of how large its contribution is.

12/ First, anyone can be anyone in gaming.

I could NEVER become as good as LeBron at basketball, no matter how much I practiced -- physically, people like me have NO CHANCE.

It makes LeBron more impressive, and makes me want to watch him play, but crucially NOT play myself.

13/ In gaming, it’s irrelevant how tall I am, or how much ice time my parents can afford at the rink. I can practice without meeting my teammates in person, without being judged for any personal quality that should not matter and get judged based on my attitude and skill instead.

14/ For the record, I’m Caucasian, from a middle class family and from a country (Finland) with limited issues with racism etc. so I’ve had few problems with any of this in my life, but that doesn’t mean those issues don’t cause pain for others around the world.

15/ More importantly, gaming is FAR more accessible than most sports.

You can play a countless number of games, many of which will teach you teamwork, logical thinking, strategy, and other useful real world skills, on a cheap smartphone that will last you years.

16/ One of the reasons soccer and basketball are holding up better is they’re more accessible, requiring but a cheap ball to play, with public courts available to many.

Some sports are simply too expensive for many families to support their kids’ hobbies (e.g., hockey).

17/ You can play from home and avoid sitting in traffic, and you don’t need your parents to take you to practice 6 times a week.

Most importantly, you can socialize with friends that have moved to other cities, or in my case, socialize with friends from home when living abroad.

18/ Gaming slowly becoming more acceptable socially matters. When I was growing up and (semi-accidentally) starting my professional gaming career, my parents limited the number of hours/days I could play a week, and worried about potential negative consequences of playing games.

19/ Eventually they got comfortable when I continued playing sports and my grades never suffered at school. But despite being generally lenient and understanding, even they didn’t really get it until I first started traveling to tournaments overseas and earning money at 17 y.o.

20/ Today the benefits of games are better understood (improved learning, logical thinking, etc.) and most importantly, the gaming industry was transformed when online gaming became a social experience through communities and availability of voice communication.

21/ Parents used to worry about kids losing friends and becoming anti-social. But how many in 2020 still play games alone, vs. as part of a group of friends they talk to daily and use headsets to communicate and catch-up on non-gaming matters with while playing?

22/ In fact, if you’re a parent, would you rather not your kid in their teens sometimes play games a few hours a day with their friends vs. doing who knows what out late at night?

Online gaming becoming a normal alternative to “hanging out” is a key, overlooked social change.

23/ Besides gaming being better understood today (though far from where it will one day end up), the fact esports and competitive gaming continue receiving media attention will inevitably help parents better understand both their children’s hobby and potential esports ambitions.

24/ If it sounds ridiculous to those who grew up without video games that someone would want to play them competitively for a living, try and go back to the era before professional sports, and explain you want to play any of them for a living.

Same thing, different era.

25/ Virtually everyone born today, with the exception of the poorest parts of the world, plays games at least casually. That trend is all-but guaranteed to continue.

Meanwhile, participation rates in sports continue declining. Kids will continue favoring games over sports.

26/ Why do we watch sports?

I grew up playing hockey, so I watched others play hockey – I appreciated the skill of Lemieux and the speed of Bure, because I could relate from playing myself, and I watched to learn, too. I went to games with my parents, and we bonded over it.

27/ Today the kids playing Fortnite or LoL want to watch the best in the world play the same games, like I did with hockey, because they can relate to it, and learn from them.

Friends get together to watch the largest esports events, much like the Super Bowl. It’s the same idea.

28/ Esports stars are also FAR more accessible than professional athletes. It may evolve, but it matters for now.

You can watch your favorite stars stream and engage with them through the chat. You can reach out to them through social media and sometimes get a response.

29/ Esports events worldwide already have more and more parent-kid combos attending. Parents may not understand it, but ultimately for them it’s about spending time and bonding with their kids, not about the event itself.

The event is a means to an end, not vice versa.

30/ That part will change. My parents would drive me to gaming events, but not attend.

Future parents who grew up with games themselves, will be the ones taking their kids to gaming events.

There will be a massive consumer shift driven by who controls the wallet.

31/ With football constantly in the news, we might also tackle the safety issues. If you’re smart about the way you play, gaming is as safe as it gets.

If I had a kid, I don’t think I’d let them play football because of the concussion risk. I would, however, let them play games.

32/ Ultimately, gaming and esports will not reach steady until then-retirees are today’s youngsters who grew up with gaming.

As long as the trend continues, there will be a HUGE tailwind behind the industries for DECADES.

Each year, gaming will grow at the expense of sports.

33/ If you’ve read this far you can probably guess my conclusion.

It will not happen overnight, and gaming is nowhere near the size of sports today. Any such suggestion is at worst lying, and at best about being misinformed.

But over the coming decades, gaming will eat sports.

34/ PS. I may have grown up with games, played games for a living, and spent my entire adult life involved with gaming and esports one way or another…

But I still love sports. To me, the two ultimately represent competition, which is what I care about, no matter the form.