Sen. Cotton says “it’s a scandal to me that we have trained so many of the Chinese Communist Party’s brightest minds to go back to China … .” He’s far from alone in thinking so.
But are Chinese students actually going back to China in large numbers? *a📊data📊thread* [1/x]
But are Chinese students actually going back to China in large numbers? *a📊data📊thread* [1/x]
First, let’s talk CCP intentions. There can be little debate about it wanting more returnees. But the CCP does not have absolute control. Its officials have long complained that “the number of top talents lost in China ranks first in the world.” [2/x]
When China liberalized study abroad in the 70s/80s, Deng hoped 90% would return. That did not work out, and many plans since then have also failed to hit targets. Yes, the CCP is powerful. But to assess whether it’s achieving its goals, we need to look at actual data. [3/x]
So, how many Chinese students are actually going back to China?
Sen. Cotton is (rightfully) mostly concerned about students “especially at the postgraduate level in advanced scientific and technological fields.” So first, lets look at STEM PhDs. [4/x]
Sen. Cotton is (rightfully) mostly concerned about students “especially at the postgraduate level in advanced scientific and technological fields.” So first, lets look at STEM PhDs. [4/x]
One good data source is the NSF, which surveys all US PhD graduates each year.
In a forthcoming paper analyzing this data, we find that in most STEM fields, 85-90% of Chinese PhDs intend to stay in the US. There has been almost no decline here since 2010. [5/x]
In a forthcoming paper analyzing this data, we find that in most STEM fields, 85-90% of Chinese PhDs intend to stay in the US. There has been almost no decline here since 2010. [5/x]
But maybe students stay for just a couple of years and then leave anyway?
Other studies have looked at longer-term stay rates. One from Oak Ridge found 5-year & 10-year stay rates of around 85% for Chinese PhD students. [6/x]
osti.gov/servlets/purl/…
Other studies have looked at longer-term stay rates. One from Oak Ridge found 5-year & 10-year stay rates of around 85% for Chinese PhD students. [6/x]
osti.gov/servlets/purl/…
In a paper from December, we studied PhD retention rates in AI (which Sen. Cotton explicitly mentioned in his comments). More than 90% of Chinese PhDs stayed in the US for at least 5 years (the point at which our data ends). [7/x]
cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/upl…
cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/upl…
Unfortunately, there is much less data available below the PhD level. But from experts and professors I’ve talked to, and from scattered data, it seems likely that stay rates are lower, tho still fairly high, for bachelor’s and master’s students. [8/x]
One recent survey of Chinese bachelor’s students (not a representative sample) by @yingyi_ma — from "Ambitious and Anxious", her great new book on Chinese undergrads — finds about 40% want to stay indefinitely, and 30-40% of the others want to stay temporarily. [9/x]
There are good reasons for US policymakers to be concerned about the CCP’s goal of using Chinese students to advance their strategic and technological ambitions. But the US also clearly retains a lot of top Chinese talent — to the great frustration of CCP leadership. [10/x]
And, happy coincidence for those who want to read more: my paper on the CCP's tech talent strategy and how the US and other countries have responded was published today. [11/11]
brookings.edu/research/china…
brookings.edu/research/china…
