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This is interesting data from New York City, which has been i) tracking probable in addition to confirmed deaths and ii) tracking deaths on the date they think the death actually occurred, not when it shows up in their records. github.com/nychealth/coro…
The further back you go, the more likely a death is to be confirmed instead of probable. Around 80% of (confirmed + probable) deaths that occurred in March were confirmed, for instance. But only ~50% of deaths to occur in the past 5 days are confirmed.
At appears that on average, it takes about 6 days for a death to occur before it shows up in the "confirmed" column. That's an average, though; there's a long tail of deaths they're counting that actually occurred weeks ago. Probable deaths can often catch these sooner.
On a typical day in NYC, something like 10% of newly-reported *confirmed* deaths actually occurred 2 or more weeks ago. I doubt NYC is alone in this regard.
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