Thread by @TheCounter

Thread: On Sunday, John H. Tyson, chairman of Tyson Foods, published a front-page newspaper ad with an ominous message: “The food supply chain is breaking.”

It was a frightening dispatch from a major meatpacker. But there's more to the story. 1/
bit.ly/2KAg89g

Yes, it’s true that meatpackers like @TysonFoods are intensely disrupted by Covid-19. Social distancing is tough in these facilities, and some plants have closed temporarily due to outbreaks.

We’re tracking U.S. plant closures and re-openings here:
bit.ly/3eP4jK6 2/

@TysonFoods But while plant closures may lead to temporary meat shortages, the system is not likely to break down—despite the severity of current challenges.

@JessTiaFu and @hclaire_brown explain why here: bit.ly/3eXHuUM 3/

First, there is no shortage of meat destined for the grocery store shelf.

It might take stores longer than usual to restock certain products, due to supply chain disruptions. But we have many millions of pounds of meat in cold storage across the nation. 4/

Case in point: Pork loins in cold storage reached an all-time high this year—nearly 50 million pounds, the most since records started to be kept in 1960. (Source: bit.ly/3aFyvE7)

These frozen stockpiles will make up for any lost processing capacity in the short term. 5/

Workers face real fear for their health and safety. As long as that’s true, current slaughter capacity will be limited. The cost of labor will rise, and eventually retail prices will, too. #tysonfoods 6/

Right now, there is no lack of animals to process. With plants closed, farmers and ranchers have fewer markets to sell into—so the slaughterhouses that remain open are likely to see supply gluts. 7/

Then there’s the tangled logistics.

There’s plenty of meat on hand that was headed to restaurants and commercial foodservice. It’ll take some time for meatpackers to convert bulk products into portion sizes the general public can work with. 8/

We’ve reported on Too Big to Pivot issues in the grain, dairy, and produce industries, too. It’s a vulnerability laid bare by this pandemic: Huge, top-down supply chains may be ruthlessly efficient, but they’re not nimble. bit.ly/3aBJnTG 9/

Smaller businesses have different vulnerabilities—and while they face challenges, too, some have managed to pivot quickly enough to keep product on the shelves. bit.ly/3bL4O63 10/

Smaller businesses have different vulnerabilities—and while they face challenges, too, some have managed to pivot quickly enough to keep product on the shelves. bit.ly/3bL4O63 10/

It’s distressing to see big meatpackers in flux, because just 4 of them dominate 80% of the supply chain. But they’re not the *entire* supply chain. Hangups at the largest, most crowded plants don’t mean the whole system is in trouble.
11/

Companies like Tyson have been hit hard by Covid-19. But they are also powerful, with plenty of cash (and vast warehouses of frozen meat) on hand.

They may be struggling now, but they have the political, financial, and infrastructural resources they’ll need to survive.
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