1/ A couple years ago, I posted a thread with some of the important business-centric lessons I’ve learned and would teach my younger self. This is an extension of that thread.
2/ Learn to win games, then turn real-life problems into games and solve them the same way. The lessons you learn to win at chess or poker or any strategic game are applicable to other areas of life.
3/ A fundamental part of winning games is thinking in terms of expected value. You don’t need to be a mathematician, but you do need to be able to think in a way that at least roughly assesses various outcomes, their odds of occurring, and the payoffs.
4/ Part of calculating expected value is thinking probabilistically. This means understanding the thing that “should” happen very often doesn’t happen. In the short-term, you can’t judge the quality of decisions on results.
5/ Even thinking probabilistically, you should move forward with conviction. You can’t go back and forth on a decision because the outcome is uncertain. You should, however, be willing to adjust your beliefs (rapidly) upon uncovering new evidence.
6/ This is part of the reason you can and should use data to help make decisions, but not as a substitute for vision. Perfectly following directions is useless if you don’t know where you’re going. As Jeff Bezos said, “Be stubborn on your vision and flexible on the details.”
7/ Being able to think in probabilities, make strong decisions with confidence, and show a willingness to frequently change your beliefs is a very rare combination. Together, that trio of traits is very powerful.
8/ Your results are a lagging effect of past work. This makes linear growth and exponential growth look very similar in early stages (see Covid-19). You can’t maximize potential without trusting that your process (being stubborn on your vision) will lead to that growth.
9/ But, winners usually see some sort of early traction. For the most part, you should give up on or quickly adapt things that aren’t working. You might move on from something too early, but as long as you’re iterating, it’s better than sticking with a loser too long.
10/ The ability to make numerous and fast adjustments is statistically superior to being “accurate” early on. This is a great analogy.
11/ Each decision you make has a certain probability of working, and while randomness dictates much of your short-term success, you can increase your chances of getting “lucky” two ways: finding edges to tilt the odds in your favor or taking more shots.
12/ Don’t try to compete with everyone; try to eliminate all competition. You can do this by being first or by adding new layers to what you do to become more specialized. Don’t just be the best at something; be the only person doing it.
13/ If something is truly a passion, you’re probably already doing it.
14/ With any business partner, value integrity above all else. Long-term, you will get burned working with people who are not honorable and loyal.
15/ You should also seek complementary skill sets in a business partner. My business partner @CSURAM88 does many things well that I do not, allowing me to focus on my strengths.
16/ One of the major weaknesses I’ve identified in myself is being generally too pessimistic. That can be leveraged in certain situations when others are overconfident, but in general, being too pessimistic is a net negative.
17/ If you’re a pessimist, try to work on it and prioritize finding an optimist as a partner. If you’re an optimist, seek a realist. You can find "balance" through a partnership; @CSURAM88 and I are balanced as a tandem, which allows us to focus on our own strengths.
18/ If you’re ever unsure what’s best to work on, do things that build long-term value. Automate future tasks. Work on things that generate passive income. I write books because it’s stored value with future upside.
19/ When you think long-term, the value of almost everything changes. It’s the biggest edge I’ve found in life and business. “Is this good for me five years from now?” is a good question to ask about any decision because it makes the calculation more dynamic.
20/ The value of optionality increases as you think long-term. Accepting life’s inevitable uncertainties is difficult, but vital; maintaining optionality is a result of that. jonathanbales.com/how-to-deal-wi…
21/ Work to put yourself in a position (both financially and mentally) in which you don’t need credit. It shouldn’t matter whose idea it was if everyone benefits. If you need credit, work to change your situation or mindset so that you don’t.
22/ Don’t meet in the middle in negotiations. This is a useful book on how to do that: amazon.com/Never-Split-Di…
23/ To become a more logical thinker, write. Clear writing is a sign of a clear mind. Reading more will help you become a better writer, too. And occasionally, you’ll have a life-changing realization, so try to read in a way that maximizes the chances of finding that magic.
24/ Before adding anything, remove everything unnecessary. That applies to anything from building products to getting healthy. Similarly, analyze each decision not just in terms of what you get, but what you lose.
25/ Make your own decisions. Avoid relying on advice from others. Let go of expectations. Don’t worry about what anyone else thinks. And have fun! jonathanbales.com/40-counterintu…
