How do you get *463% excess mortality* for a bad flu season, or dying with but not of Covid?
Again and again: skeptics are not offering critiques on which reasonable minds may differ. They just don't engage this at all—and now to boot hide under the banner of "facts" and "data."
Again and again: skeptics are not offering critiques on which reasonable minds may differ. They just don't engage this at all—and now to boot hide under the banner of "facts" and "data."
Here are the possible lines of response, all of which I've heard:
"It's all hype. The doctors are coding everything as Covid."
Sure. Fine. Again: The *total number of people dying* all across the world is way above normal, sometimes several times above. Is that a coding error?
"It's all hype. The doctors are coding everything as Covid."
Sure. Fine. Again: The *total number of people dying* all across the world is way above normal, sometimes several times above. Is that a coding error?
"Oh, so you really buy those nonsense fatality rates? Look at all those new serology studies — it's only as bad as seasonal flu (0.1%) and it was all along."
Bergamo lost 0.4% of its entire population in estimated excess mortality, and that was with an aggressive lockdown.
Bergamo lost 0.4% of its entire population in estimated excess mortality, and that was with an aggressive lockdown.
...and without, so far as we can tell yet, their reaching herd immunity.
"Well there are different strains that are much more lethal but most are only as bad as flu."
Great. So you've just reinvented epicycles: It's only really awful so far because the hypothetical mechanism I've just posited permits it to only be bad there.
Great. So you've just reinvented epicycles: It's only really awful so far because the hypothetical mechanism I've just posited permits it to only be bad there.
"You're changing the subject. We're lowballing the denominator. There are mass asymptomatic cases."
Sorry, but you're changing the subject. I'm not speculating about the rate. I'm talking about the number of people *already documented to have died.* How do you account for that?
Sorry, but you're changing the subject. I'm not speculating about the rate. I'm talking about the number of people *already documented to have died.* How do you account for that?
"Maybe Covid hastened a few deaths, but they would have died soon anyway. By year's end it'll even out to just the flu."
It would strengthen this claim if you pointed to any epidemiology evidence from earlier outbreak regions or past pandemics. Otherwise, this is more epicycles.
It would strengthen this claim if you pointed to any epidemiology evidence from earlier outbreak regions or past pandemics. Otherwise, this is more epicycles.
The research I've seen on effects of recessions/social isolation on suicides is muddled and conflicting, but where increases are observable they seem to be so only over the longer term. There's just no way they can account for spikes that big and sudden.
The complete data on causes of death unfortunately has a significant lag time to be fully reported, which is why we went with rates from recent years on our Dismal Chart. But what data there is so far suggests decreases in deaths from car accidents and homicides.
Along with possible increases from e.g. heart disease — probably due to higher pressure on / lower access to health care, and people being more reluctant to get care even when they could. It's a muddle teasing this all out. But overall deaths are way, way up in outbreak regions.
"All of the data is so questionable that we can't draw good conclusions from it right now."
You don't get to wait for RCTs to decide how to steer out of a storm. And if that's your position, then you have to say it's as likely to be worse than we think as it is to be better.
You don't get to wait for RCTs to decide how to steer out of a storm. And if that's your position, then you have to say it's as likely to be worse than we think as it is to be better.
"The deaths are faked."
Now we're talking.
Now we're talking.
I'd also like an explanation for how American media elites hoodwinked China, Italy, Spain, and Iran into shuttering their countries — and managed to do it back when the elite party line was that Covid wasn't as bad as flu and fearing it was racist.
For those inquiring about the +463% stat: that's for Bergamo province, from further down that thread. Others:
+347% Guayas, Ecuador
+299% NYC
+96% London
+161% Madrid
+347% Guayas, Ecuador
+299% NYC
+96% London
+161% Madrid
Not as bad as flu nytimes.com/interactive/20… 
