I have a hypothesis about humans' historically inept pandemic responses.
Folks in power are usually unfamiliar with microbiology. They're much more familiar with, and interested in, stories about war.
So they approach a pandemic like a wartime enemy, which doesn't work. 1/
Folks in power are usually unfamiliar with microbiology. They're much more familiar with, and interested in, stories about war.
So they approach a pandemic like a wartime enemy, which doesn't work. 1/
Viruses don't have ears, eyes, or brains. So unlike humans, they cannot be moved by bluster and bravado.
Rousing speeches, glitzy airshows, and parades are all wartime traditions. But at best, they don't affect a virus.
At worst, they make it easier for a virus to spread. 2/
Rousing speeches, glitzy airshows, and parades are all wartime traditions. But at best, they don't affect a virus.
At worst, they make it easier for a virus to spread. 2/
The second wave of the Spanish flu that you see in the above diagram kicked off at a celebratory World War I parade in Philadelphia.
The parade gathered thousands of people in one place—which is precisely the condition under which a virus spreads. 3/
The parade gathered thousands of people in one place—which is precisely the condition under which a virus spreads. 3/
You'd think we'd learn, but @NYGovCuomo has already enthusiastically announced that his first act "after all this is over" will be to throw a parade "for healthcare workers."
Because he—like many governors, senators, judges, and the like—thinks he is living in a war movie. 4/
Because he—like many governors, senators, judges, and the like—thinks he is living in a war movie. 4/
War movies are popular, and violent, and dramatic. War movies are SEXY.
So first of all, any military personnel will tell you, real war is NOT sexy. It's grueling, boring, and soul-sucking in the most arduous fashion you can imagine.
Second of all, this? Not a war movie. 5/
So first of all, any military personnel will tell you, real war is NOT sexy. It's grueling, boring, and soul-sucking in the most arduous fashion you can imagine.
Second of all, this? Not a war movie. 5/
The things that affect a virus don't make good TV, usually.
Social distancing—no big crowds, no fun battles, none of that.
Constant, regular, widespread testing—Who likes tests? Unsexy.
Vaccine development—Slow, for very important safety reasons. But slow is not sexy. 6/
Social distancing—no big crowds, no fun battles, none of that.
Constant, regular, widespread testing—Who likes tests? Unsexy.
Vaccine development—Slow, for very important safety reasons. But slow is not sexy. 6/
We run into a similar problem in software engineering.
The people in charge, the CEOs and investors and whatnot, have seen the movies, and they want tech to be SEXY.
And engineers know, that in order for tech to WORK, a LOT of slow and unsexy has to happen first. 7/
The people in charge, the CEOs and investors and whatnot, have seen the movies, and they want tech to be SEXY.
And engineers know, that in order for tech to WORK, a LOT of slow and unsexy has to happen first. 7/
You've seen the badass shots of rockets going into space. Sexy, right?
You know what that takes? It takes the terrifying competence of thirty thousand engineers on supremely unsexy tasks for, like, a decade.
The testing ALONE is a seven thousand person job. 8/
You know what that takes? It takes the terrifying competence of thirty thousand engineers on supremely unsexy tasks for, like, a decade.
The testing ALONE is a seven thousand person job. 8/
Here's the unsavory conclusion that falls out of this hypothesis.
We gotta change the prevalence of will to power whose only frame of reference for mass trauma is war movies,
Or we gotta make science-driven frames of reference a larger part of the cultural zeitgeist. 9/
We gotta change the prevalence of will to power whose only frame of reference for mass trauma is war movies,
Or we gotta make science-driven frames of reference a larger part of the cultural zeitgeist. 9/
This is, I think, a big point where the populace bifurcates, and one side doesn't understand the other.
People with science-driven frames of reference DO think technical competence is sexy. They understand the slow, and the methodical, and that doesn't scare or bore them. 10/
People with science-driven frames of reference DO think technical competence is sexy. They understand the slow, and the methodical, and that doesn't scare or bore them. 10/
They literally do not get why people without science-driven frames of reference are not attracted to technical competence.
They fall back on "I guess those people are just stupid."
Which, in addition to being arrogant, is dangerous and lazy and not solving the problem. 11/
They fall back on "I guess those people are just stupid."
Which, in addition to being arrogant, is dangerous and lazy and not solving the problem. 11/
People aren't actually THAT stupid, and technical competence doesn't actually require someone to be THAT smart. If you wanna see me really go off on this, I wrote more about it at this post 12/
But the POINT is...
chelseatroy.com/2017/07/21/sma…
But the POINT is...
chelseatroy.com/2017/07/21/sma…
Whether we solve this problem by getting more science-educated people into power,
Or whether we solve it by making science education sexy enough that people with will to power have it,
Both solutions require scientists to communicate better with non-scientists, 13/
Or whether we solve it by making science education sexy enough that people with will to power have it,
Both solutions require scientists to communicate better with non-scientists, 13/
And both solutions also require a CULTURAL shift toward seeing technical competence as sexy.
Art and culture can play a massive role here.
There's one more thing I have to mention, because without it we're lying to ourselves. 14/
Art and culture can play a massive role here.
There's one more thing I have to mention, because without it we're lying to ourselves. 14/
War is seen as masculine. The people who obtain, or wrest, power for themselves are overwhelmingly men.
I just don't think it's plausible that "How masculine will I look doing this?" isn't a factor when these men decide how to respond to crises. 15/
I just don't think it's plausible that "How masculine will I look doing this?" isn't a factor when these men decide how to respond to crises. 15/
It's masculine to swoop in at the eleventh hour with eye black and a gun to save the damsel in distress.
It's not masculine to address the root cause such that the damsel is never in distress in the first place. 16/
It's not masculine to address the root cause such that the damsel is never in distress in the first place. 16/
That has to be addressed. Directly.
We don't make news out of all the disasters that COULD have happened, but didn't, because XYZ measures were taken ahead of time.
Maybe if we told prevention stories as stories of heroism, we'd find ourselves at fewer hero's funerals. 17/
We don't make news out of all the disasters that COULD have happened, but didn't, because XYZ measures were taken ahead of time.
Maybe if we told prevention stories as stories of heroism, we'd find ourselves at fewer hero's funerals. 17/
