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@Patterico @justinamash Sure. Because Trump voters are a cult. We saw this in 2016 and since. They are an immovable, non-poachable bloc. Amash gives voters who might have faced a binary choice a way of protesting while letting Trump slide. This is what happened in 2016, as well. /1
@Patterico @justinamash Every vote that isn't thrown on the Dem pile is functionally a vote lost to Biden; Trump's voters aren't going anywhere. So this is just a steam valve that relieves pressure on voters who might not like Trump, but want to say they "can't vote for a Dem." /2
@Patterico @justinamash More narrowly, it hurts Biden in places he needs to recapture. Amash will cost Biden votes in Michigan. That's 16 EVs right there. Maybe in PA, WI - don't know. But there is no scenario in which this hurts Trump more than Biden, imo. /3x
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Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
So the two-step the "Wuhan lab theory" has begun. No one is saying it that a lab accident - like sloppy handling of waste - is impossible.
But that's not what started all this. Both Cotton and Trump have thrown out multiple scenarios in classic motte/bailey argument.
/1
Both Cotton - and Trump even today - have suggested that lab creation and *intentional* release are among many possibilities, throwing in the crazy stuff with the sensible stuff and knowing that the Base Faithful will hear the part they want them to hear. /2
And now Trump defenders are saying "but look, the IC is still investigating some of these possibilities!"
Yes, they're confirming that they've been ordered to, by a White House that wants scapegoats and to politicize the intelligence.
/3
Read 4 tweets
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Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
A quick digression here on parties and the two-party system.
*Partisan hat off*
*Political science hat on*

Those of you who argue that two-party systems mean some interests are not represented are right. This is a good thing, depending on what you want from the system. /1
Traditionally, parties in a "first past the post" system are forced to *aggregate* interests, not divide them. So, because you only have two (or in some cases, "two and a half" parties, like in the old German system or the UK now and then), the parties must be more moderate. /2
Now, if you believe in centrism and moderation, that's great. Parties do a valuable thing. If you want very narrow and specific issues, you'll prefer a parliamentary system with proportional representation. The Founders rejected that - for good reason. /3
Read 9 tweets
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Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
A quick Cold War related observation about Tom Cotton and his thing about Chinese students: There's a reason the USSR didn't want its students studying in the United States or any other Western countries. They knew it would wreck them, ideologically. /1
Cotton is splitting the argument between "we're training the enemy" and "they'll take er jerbs."
1. They will go somewhere. This isn't 1950 and MIT and CalTech aren't the only game in town.
2. If American kids won't study STEM and become bilingual, that's *our problem. /2
don't think Cotton is dumb enough to think that sending Chinese students home will matter. In fact, he's smart enough to know that this helps cement the "everything is China's fault" narrative that will underpin supporting Trump. And maybe he's still angling for DCIA. /3
Read 4 tweets

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