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Two things about Sweden's data:

1) It has had a lot of fatalities. I don't buy the "other places [e.g. Italy] have been worse" take. Sweden's death rate per capita is 6-7x that of Norway and Finland, and 3x that of Denmark.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Those comparisons matter more because lots of factors matter in death rates, not all of which reflect government policy. The Nordic/Scandinavian countries should be pretty comparable and will control for a number of those variables.
2) However, it also increasingly seems that their numbers are leveling off, especially in Stockholm, which is what you would expect if 30% of the population has had it there (as their ambassador claims) providing some herd immunity. Here is their ICU data:
portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/co…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This is perhaps interesting. You can do a pretty good job of predicting recent R in each state based on Apple's mobility data and urbanization. No surprise, but cases are falling more where people are moving around less. Image
But controlling for mobility, they're also falling more in rural states than urban ones. Montana isn't having many COVID-19 cases even though mobility is high there, for instance. ImageImage
R's are estimated using the technique described here and attempt to account for the number of tests. They reflect a median of the previous 4 weeks, which should capture the post-lockdown period fairly well.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/coron…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Why are *reported* deaths in this slide so different than projected deaths? Was this a model originally developed in March or something? It is very strange.

nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/… Image
Projecting ~200K new detected cases each day **by the end of the month** from a current baseline of ~30K is also a LOT, even with quite pessimistic assumptions. I would encourage some caution with taking these at face value.
Indeed, this also doesn't make much sense.

Read 7 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Apart from warmer weather, it's also worth keeping in mind that we're getting to the point in time when a lot of people expected the lockdowns to end. Here is some polling data on that: scottrasmussen.com/37-expect-lock…
Most people did *not* expect the lockdowns to last only a few weeks, even though the initial time frame for stay-at-home orders was a few weeks in many places.

58% *did* expect them to end within a month or two, however. Now that it's May, it's been "a month or two", roughly.
To put it another way, while it may be a good idea to continue the lockdown—indeed, I think it still is a good and necessary idea, at least for most places!—the mandate for the *original* lockdown may be waning, and pro-lockdown folks should be aware of that.
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