Coronavirus antibody tests have "really terrible" accuracy, researcher says cnn.com/2020/04/28/hea… // There's no doubt FDA, CDC, NIH, FEMA all messed up in January/February. Fast tracking 100 "tests" created a worse situation as efforts weren't coordinated, focused, or reliable.
Detailed study testing the tests which showed among the poor results:
1 test > 15% false +
3 tests > 10% false +
5 tests ~ 5% false +
only 3 < 1% false +
(noting a 1% false + rate leads to a coin toss level reliability) dropbox.com/s/cd1628cau092…
1 test > 15% false +
3 tests > 10% false +
5 tests ~ 5% false +
only 3 < 1% false +
(noting a 1% false + rate leads to a coin toss level reliability) dropbox.com/s/cd1628cau092…
The absence of regulation can create a situation where we are operating with a level of chaos and unreliability across a system that can take much longer to rectify than if efforts were corrected and managed. Yes that's an IF, but this chaos was not an "if" as it was certain too.
Unreliability of antibody test is only amplified by the lack of understanding of what a + antibody even means. The experts have little clarity yet on that question.
This combination weakens the next steps of opening because testing has been established as the requirement. //
This combination weakens the next steps of opening because testing has been established as the requirement. //
